Recent content by JJH

Thank you for this information! One clarifying question: the sisoftware tests appear to suggest that graphics cards play a major part in improving simulation speeds, correct? How to take full advantage of this?

I'm planning to build a PC for running heavy simulations that would take up days, probably even weeks on my current workstation. Let's say I want to build a computer solely for simulation purposes. Is CPU then the only component that matters? Or does RAM play a part too?

How do I generate n random variables, \(X_i\in\{-1,1\}\) with known probabilities \(p_i=P(X_i=1)\) and \(p_{ij}=P(X_i=1 \wedge X_j=1)+P(X_i=-1 \wedge X_j=-1)\)? 
 I found a package for R for simulating binary variables (i.e. \(X_i\in\{0,1\}\)), however, it doesn't produce the correct result if I...

Ok, what about CFDs (Contract For Difference)? Essentially the same thing?

Correct, but assume the risk free rate is so small (for example, for a period of one week) that it is not relevant for the question.

Let's say that you are certain that the price of a stock is going up in the near future. You don't know how much it will go up, only that it most certainly is not going to decline. Of course, this is not necessarily a realistic situation, but let's say you are 100% sure that the stock won't...

Actually, they are both PhD programs in economics. Finance is part of the broader definition of economics. At least this is the case where I study (Europe). As for the courses, the Finance program contains more microeconomics stuff whereas the Quant program is only math and statistics. I...

I'm about to start PhD studies. However, I have a tough decision between two departments: Finance and Quantitative Economics. I need to decide which one to choose and it will be a major decision since I will be affiliated with that department for the next 4-5 years. Here are the pros and cons...

HyperVolatility, I completely agree with you in every point! Regarding market movements and flipping a coin, I have been talking about predicting the direction of a stock price or a currency exchange rate (can only move up or down), hence getting it right 50% is equivalent to flipping a coin.

I don't think a quant analyst is any better than a qualitative analyst at predicting stock prices or currency exchange rates. However, I see many other useful tasks for quants (and in fact, for qual analysts too) that are not related to giving public announcements about which stock to buy or sell.

If only stock prices would move according to real facts and not people's opinions about the future :) This is mainly why I have a negative attitude to predicting stock prices. (Yes, stock price tend to follow what's happening with the company in the real world, however, analyst business is...

That's what I was trying to explain dale, just how ridiculous it is for someone to say that they can make genuine predictions about the future. I'm not sure if you understood me correctly? I'm the one trying to underline what nonsense the analyst business appears to be.

Andy, I respect your opinions, but your logic in this matter is a bit tenous. Isn't an analyst's job essentially about trying to predict future :) A simple calculation: No one can predict the future 100% correctly, but assume there is an expert analyst, who can get the direction of interest...

Andy, after you have stated that, let me ask you a very important question: Why would anyone, with the ability of predicting the future, want to work as an analyst if they are forbidden to trade?

By asking that, I think you have not understood the inner nature of the position and influence of an analyst. A well-known analyst who can influence the markets is right more often than an analyst who has no effect on the investors' behavior. Example: Well-known analyst says "Buy company A's...