# Corona Virus discussion

#### Andy Nguyen

Just to get everything into one thread for easy tracking.
Looks like University of Washington has canceled all in-person classes and will move to online classes. Exams, finals, etc will take place online.
There is a chance schools in NYC will follow as more cases are confirmed.

#### IntoDarkness

good
at 6% mortality rate, this thing is very lethal

#### QuantQuestion

good
at 6% mortality rate, this thing is very lethal
It is not 6% by any stretch of the imagination

#### ActuaryQFI

It is not 6% by any stretch of the imagination
Well... We don't really know what the actual death rate is. The data is right censored. You can try to employ some survival analysis techniques to estimate it... But there are still many challenges in this approach. An example of the challenges that we face is the the frequent changes in definition of what constitutes a case in China. Another example is the the possibility that patients with milder symptoms not noticing/reporting their infections. This means that there may also be some incurred but not reported (IBNR) cases.

Anyway, I think it's still too early to pin down an exact number on this. Also, given the high variability, I would expect our CI on this estimate to be pretty wide.

#### Daniel Duffy

##### C++ author, trainer
good
at 6% mortality rate, this thing is very lethal
6% of what?
fear of the unknown.

In Netherlands 3000 people died from common flu in 2018. Some years it is 10,000.

People are overreacting.

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#### ActuaryQFI

idk wat u guys r smoking
assuming current data r accurate and comprehensive (Coronavirus Update (Live): 101,954 Cases and 3,466 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer):
mortality = death / (death + recovered)
Assuming that the data is correct and suppose that the number of infections stays constant (fingers crossed), we haven't yet observed the actual number of deaths. That is, we don't know whether the people who have survived so far are going to die or recover at the end. In this case, if we were to naively use this formula, the denominator is fixed but the numerator can only increase over time (as more of the people who haven't recovered die). This can therefore result in an underestimation.

On the other hand, there may be people who have been infected but are not reporting their illness. If we were to consider these incurred but not reported cases, then it could result in an overestimation. So, on balance, the two issues go in opposite direction. But on top of this, there is also the definition issue of what constitutes an infection.

I'm not trying to argue with you guys about this. I am just saying that we probably need a wider confidence interval for measuring this instead of just giving a point measure.

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#### ActuaryQFI

Assuming that the data is correct and suppose that the number of infections stays constant (fingers crossed), we haven't yet observed the actual number of deaths. That is, we don't know whether the people who have survived so far are going to die or recover at the end. In this case, if we were to naively use this formula, the denominator is fixed but the numerator can only increase over time (as more of the people who haven't recovered die). This can therefore result as an underestimation.

On the other hand, there may be people who have been infected but are not reporting their illness. If we were to consider these incurred but not reported cases, then it could result in an overestimation. So, on balance, the two issues go in opposite direction.

I'm not trying to argue with you guys about this. I am just saying that we probably need a wider confidence interval for measuring this instead of just giving a point measure.
Anyway, I think we have gone wayyyyyy off topic... The OP is talking about the potential implications of having courses taken online.

#### Chilbal

You think this might effect international students from india and china in getting study visa?
Is there a chance that these countries might totally be in travel ban even for students etc

#### IntoDarkness

points taken and not arguing ci can be wide
simply stating 6% is our best estimate atm

#### Chilbal

Corona deaths would be well documented but number of infected people is hard to estimate properly because most of the ppl might think its a normal flu and some might not report it in the fear of quarantine
So actual mortality rate might be less than what is calculated but either way its still enough to warrant cautious measures

#### Andy Nguyen

WHO mentioned 3.1% rate as of 3/3/2020

The unknown is how the travel ban will affect many students who came home for the Chinese new year and got stuck. Who knows when the US will lift the ban and what will happen to their study, visa status.
And the incoming students who should be there in a few months to prepare for Fall 2020.

Everytime I turn on TV, there is a new cases reported left and right where I live. I guess most of us live somewhere that is affected one way or another.

#### longgamma

idk wat u guys r smoking
assuming current data r accurate and comprehensive (Coronavirus Update (Live): 101,954 Cases and 3,466 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer):
mortality = death / (death + recovered) = 3466 / (3466 + 54123) = 6%
The numerator is fairly certain but who knows about the denominator. There could be cases which are under the radar and the WHO’s estimate is 1%. Also your denominator is way off.

#### longgamma

WHO mentioned 3.1% rate as of 3/3/2020

The unknown is how the travel ban will affect many students who came home for the Chinese new year and got stuck. Who knows when the US will lift the ban and what will happen to their study, visa status.
And the incoming students who should be there in a few months to prepare for Fall 2020.

Everytime I turn on TV, there is a new cases reported left and right where I live. I guess most of us live somewhere that is affected one way or another.
So far it seems that China might stabilize soon thanks to the draconian measures implemented by the government. Italy seems to following China’s approach but the biggest disappointment so far had been US’s odd response. Leaving aside politics, they have tested just 2000 people while SoKo has tested over ten times they number.

problem is no sensible country would ban travel to US, but given the cavalier nature there it could be possible that many unwitting Americans would be new vectors of transmission.

hate to add more fuel to the fire, but some doctors are saying that Covid does irreparable damage to some people’s lungs. I hope people take this seriously.

#### IntoDarkness

Stop smoking watever u r smoking who latest estimate 3%
if my denominator is way off show me yours

#### longgamma

Stop smoking watever u r smoking who latest estimate 3%
if my denominator is way off show me yours

calm down bro, maybe you are the one who needs to smoke something. Click on the link I attached earlier for updated cases. This isn’t a measuring contest, I am not “showing mine” to you, just do some basic googling.

#### Chilbal

It is not possible to know the accurate estimate for the denominator because many cases would fly under the radar.
but we can probably say the WHO estimate would be most accurate out of all of them

So far it seems that China might stabilize soon thanks to the draconian measures implemented by the government. Italy seems to following China’s approach but the biggest disappointment so far has been US’s odd response. Leaving aside politics, they have tested just 2000 people while SoKo has tested over ten times they number.

I understand the testing kits aren't available in the USA and those available are not reliable. The federal response is a belated one, and perhaps too little too late. As I've said elsewhere, this is not the bubonic plague. But when something like that does occur -- when, not if -- the USA will be unprepared.

#### longgamma

Apparently Columbia University has suspended classes for this semester as well. Anyone remember if something similar happened during SARS?

#### Andy Nguyen

Apparently Columbia University has suspended classes for this semester as well. Anyone remember if something similar happened during SARS?
2 days suspension for Columbia University. Then they will switch to online classes for rest of the week.
Fordham University will switch to online starting Wed. They may resume in-person courses by 3/30.
Princeton will move to online on 3/23 for at least 2 weeks.

This is a huge disruption. Online classes are not an option in all programs and courses.

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