Normal default probability vs forward default probability/conditional default


New Member
Is the diagram correct in calculating foward PD(conditional default) ? Or should the formula be
Probability of default = probability of survival x forward PD
Which of this is equal to marginal PD(unconditional) and which of this is equal to hazard rate?

I am trying to model probability of default using survival analysis but got confused with the definition. I want to try and compute 12-month PD which is what the IFRS9 needs. After getting the PD for each month, I am not sure which PD to sum to get the 12 month PD I.e marginal or forward PD.


Seems like you need the survival prob. PD_12 is the product of each monthly marginal, right? If so, that's the left side of the equation. Whereas the PS_12-1 would be sum_product of 1-PD_i for each i from 0 to 11. Just my guess.