The house prices!In the nineties lending rates were 13% and there was no crash.
So, what's different now?
I live in The Netherlands and I don't see it happening here in the short term.
Then buy a boat!I built my house 5 km from the North Sea
Mean-reverting?! Open your eyes and look somewhat beyond Vasicek & Co:Don't you know house prices crash ever 30 years and interest rates are mean-reverting. Anyone can tell you that.
Will see. I expect Japanese scenario: stagnation and long-term near-zero interest rate.what about 2016-2030?
My model is not about mortgage debt held by banks. My model is about how a shift of rates influences
a) the (residual) mortgagers' debt
b) the market prices of real estate
They are, but such a model would be too complicated for a layman.Are (historical) fundamentals important here?
loan != loan in GermanyHow much can you lend in D: 3 1/2 times salary?
And do you need a deposit of 20% on the house?
Yes, mostly, but not exclusively.Are mortgage mostly annuities?