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Superbowl XLIV prediction

The pointspread for Super Bowl XLIV has settled in at 4.5 points with most online markets while Las Vegas books are dealing a half a point higher at five points in favor of the Indianapolis Colts when they face the New Orleans Saints in Miami Sunday.

Bodog.com is currently dealing the highest amount of points at Colts -6, while the Las Vegas Hilton currently has 5.5 up for their spread.

Super Bowl XLIV’s original spread opened at -5 at most offshores and was immediately bet up to 5.5 points. That number soared to six points but has begun to drop as action on the Saints came in. According to Logans.com's numbers, 68 percent of spread action is coming in on Indianapolis.

The number for the total has moved from its original post of 55 points to as high as 57 at online and Las Vegas sportsbooks. As of Thursday, Logans.com has taken in 76 percent of their action on the over.
 

dstefan

Baruch MFE Director
wow, that is detailed. I do not bet on sports, just enjoy matching with no strings attached :)
 

Sanket Patel

i do stuff
Colts, because I dislike the Saints more than I dislike Peyton Manning.
 

bob

Faculty (Undercover)
Take the Colts, give the points; take the under.
 

Joy Pathak

Swaptionz
The probability of Colts winning is high.

The probability of Saints beating the spread is high.

lol

I read a paper once on predicting Soccer teams in England outcome of games.

I think they saw that the attack and defense of the teams follow bivariate stochastic process. They used some simple technique to predict the attack and defense but it can also be done through monte carlo methods. They then compared empirical results to outcomes of games in a period and they had very good predictions. I remember it vaguely though.

I saw it few years ago. Maybe I can dig it up.
 
I read a paper once on predicting Soccer teams in England outcome of games.

I think they saw that the attack and defense of the teams follow bivariate stochastic process. They used some simple technique to predict the attack and defense but it can also be done through monte carlo methods. They then compared empirical results to outcomes of games in a period and they had very good predictions. I remember it vaguely though.

I saw it few years ago. Maybe I can dig it up.

perhaps : this
 
So much for predicting ****.

Congratulations to the Saints for producing the surprise at the right time.

By the way, any prediction is a guess. If 8 out of 10 say team A will win and B wins it doesn't mean that those 8 were ignorant and chose the wrong option ...
Colts were favorites, no question about it.
 

Bastian Gross

German Mathquant
Congratulations to the Saints!

Thanks to the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints for this great sports night!
The game was fantastic and exciting!
 
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