Some in markets have started talking about a Fed rate cut in 2020 which basically means that we may be heading towards a recession in early 2020. But difficult to point out where it will come from. Everything looks good with the US economy.
Next global recession may be coming from my backyard in China but it is hard to say when. Asset price bubble in China appears even bigger than it was in Japan in late 80's. Chinese authorities were fine tuning policies in recent years towards deleveraging. The recent slowdown in China has been largely because of it's deleveraging efforts and impact of trade tensions, if any, may actually begin to be felt only in 2019. China now is shifting away from deleveraging policies and will likely pursue fiscal as well as monetary stimulus going into 2019 but it will only postpone economic slowdown and further intensify systemic risks (i.e. leverage in the system).
We may also be heading towards another Eurozone crisis with economy growth appears to be slowing down. Eurozone economy is also quite exposed to global trade cycle and there is little ECB could do in terms of monetary stimulus if there is slowdown. Political landscape in Europe is also becoming messy with bent toward populist policies and growing differences between member states. Leadership at several EU's top position will change in 2019 (European Commission, EU Council, Parliament and the ECB) while heads of governments in several key countries could change as well. Markets could again begin to question the future of Euro.
It is unlikely that the US will be the epicentre of a global recession this time around but next year is likely to be quite eventful. Have been seeing so much market activity this close to holiday season..any other year, this will be very quite time for traders.