- Joined
- 9/25/10
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I almost always find a GDP projection (20-30 years down the line) is very heavily biased in favor of a country that has a very high population.
For Instance consider GDP projections of China, India, Indonesia, so on.
Do such analysis take into account factors such as quality of governance, decision making, and so on?
These analysis always tend to assume that the factors that were responsible for the growth will not work negatively against them. Many countries : South Korea, Brazil, Japan, Russia stagnated after a sudden boom for one reason or the other and were never able to meet their past projections.
( In the early 1990's Japan was considered buoyant and US stagnant, with Japan's GDP touching US's in 1995, but today US is 3 times greater than Japan in terms of GDP).
Similarly consider USSR in 1989 ( 1/2 the size of US economy ) and now (1/10 th the size).
Consider so many victims of the Asian Financial Crisis (Phillipines, Indonesia)
The list continues.
Does this analysis not assume that the West will be stagnant and do nothing to regain its edge. What about a massive breakthrough in robotics - robots that can think. The west wouldn't then need to outsource such jobs to countries such as China or India. Also, rising wages and poor Infrastructure (generally, ex China) would anyway make it uneconomical to outsource them. Probably such jobs may be outsourced to Africa, where wages are even lower than China/ Vietnam/India.
For Instance consider GDP projections of China, India, Indonesia, so on.
Do such analysis take into account factors such as quality of governance, decision making, and so on?
These analysis always tend to assume that the factors that were responsible for the growth will not work negatively against them. Many countries : South Korea, Brazil, Japan, Russia stagnated after a sudden boom for one reason or the other and were never able to meet their past projections.
( In the early 1990's Japan was considered buoyant and US stagnant, with Japan's GDP touching US's in 1995, but today US is 3 times greater than Japan in terms of GDP).
Similarly consider USSR in 1989 ( 1/2 the size of US economy ) and now (1/10 th the size).
Consider so many victims of the Asian Financial Crisis (Phillipines, Indonesia)
The list continues.
Does this analysis not assume that the West will be stagnant and do nothing to regain its edge. What about a massive breakthrough in robotics - robots that can think. The west wouldn't then need to outsource such jobs to countries such as China or India. Also, rising wages and poor Infrastructure (generally, ex China) would anyway make it uneconomical to outsource them. Probably such jobs may be outsourced to Africa, where wages are even lower than China/ Vietnam/India.
