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Fed Lowers Benchmark Rate to 4.75 Percent, First Cut Since 2003

Yuriy

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Fed Lowers Benchmark Rate to 4.75 Percent, First Cut Since 2003


By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a half point to 4.75 percent, the first cut in four years, hoping to keep the U.S. from sinking into a recession sparked by spreading housing-market fallout.

``Developments in financial markets since the Committee's last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. ``The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.''

The larger-than-forecast reduction by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, facing his biggest test since succeeding Alan Greenspan 19 months ago, suggests that officials see a serious risk of an economic slump. The six-year expansion is threatened by job losses and a worsening housing downturn.

``Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction, and to restrain economic growth more generally,'' the FOMC said.

Today's decision was unanimous. Core inflation has improved ``modestly'' this year, while some risks remain, the Fed said.

``Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time,'' the statement said.

Change in Direction

The federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for loans, had stood at 5.25 percent since June 2006. That's when the Fed ended a two-year run of increases that lifted the rate from a four-decade low of 1 percent.

Most economists anticipated a quarter-point, and traders pared bets on a bigger move in recent days as some Fed officials signaled they would be reluctant to back a half-point cut.

The Fed's Board of Governors also lowered the rate on direct loans to banks by half a percentage point to 5.25 percent.

The Fed first reduced the so-called discount rate by a half point on Aug. 17 in a surprise move to restore confidence after some companies found it hard to obtain funds as investors fled riskier assets. The credit crunch was caused by losses in securities tied to subprime mortgages.

The half-point reduction in the federal funds target was forecast by 23 of 134 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. One hundred and five predicted a reduction of 25 basis points while six forecast no change. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

``It's a good risk management move,'' Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said before the decision. ``If you do 50 and then subsequently find out that 25 would have been sufficient, I don't think that much is lost. The other way around, you do 25 and you find out you should have done 50, that could be pretty bad.''

Investors began anticipating a reduction on Aug. 9, a week before the Fed made the initial discount-rate cut and said risks to growth have ``increased appreciably.'' Two weeks later, Bernanke said in a speech that the central bank would ``act as needed to limit the adverse effects on the broader economy that may arise from the disruptions in financial markets.''

The decision comes two days before Bernanke faces lawmakers in a House Financial Services Committee hearing on the mortgage- market crisis. Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who heads the panel, on Sept. 7 called for a ``meaningful'' rate cut by the Fed.

Policy makers were forced to shift their focus to growth from inflation in August as rising defaults on subprime mortgages rippled through global credit markets. Asset-backed commercial paper contracted by the most in at least seven years and Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage company, was shut out of the market.

Economic reports show that the deepening recession in housing is taking a toll on other industries. The Labor Department said Sept. 7 that employers cut 4,000 workers in August. Job growth has been slowing since June, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart acknowledged. August figures for retail sales and industrial production were below economists' forecasts.

Officials including Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen highlighted the risks to spending in speeches this month. Teams of Fed economists also ran what-if scenarios to supplement the central forecast given to the FOMC members today.

Inflation has also receded. The Fed's preferred price gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier in July, within the 1 percent to 2 percent comfort range stated by several officials. The Labor Department said today that producer prices fell 1.4 percent in August, more than economists predicted.

Financial markets have remained in flux. The benchmark three-month borrowing rate between banks, known as Libor, has climbed to 5.59 from 5.36 percent at the end of July, after hitting 5.73 percent on Sept. 7. Fed officials ``clearly'' need to pay attention to the Libor increase, Mishkin said Sept. 10.

The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes has dropped about 1 percentage point in the past three months as investors began to anticipate a series of rate cuts.

``They ought to be doing something strong and if anything be leading the markets rather than lagging them,'' Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman who is now an economics professor at Princeton University in New Jersey, said before today's decision.

To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net ; Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net .

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aV.iQCJeskKU&refer=economy
 
U.S. Stocks Gain After Fed Cuts Benchmark Rate by Half Point

U.S. Stocks Gain After Fed Cuts Benchmark Rate by Half Point

By Lynn Thomasson

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark lending rate by 0.5 percentage point and said credit-market losses could restrain the economy.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 23.49, or 1.6 percent, to 1,500.14 at 2:16 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 181.28, or 1.4 percent, to 13,584.70. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 22.2, or 0.9 percent, to 2,603.86.

Stocks extended gains spurred earlier when profit from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds, and Best Buy Co., the largest electronics retailer, helped allay concern that the economy will contract.

``Developments in financial markets since the Committee's last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook,'' policy makers said after reducing the fed funds rate for the first time in four years.

``That will give the economy a little bit of an insurance policy,'' Adam Friedman, who helps oversee $2.7 billion at Integrity Asset Management LLC in Cleveland, said before the rate cut was announced. ``Inflation is low, the consumer is OK, the credit markets will hopefully stabilize and we'll get back to a more normal position.''

A government report today showing prices paid to U.S. producers fell more than forecast in August diminished concern inflation would keep the Fed from lowering borrowing costs.

The median prediction of 134 economists polled by Bloomberg News was for a quarter-point cut to 5 percent. Twenty-three projected a half-point cut.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net .

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=adr2mkdDiYPY&refer=stocks
 
Finally .. wall street got what it wants ... obviously .. Bernake did not want a dead cat of recession in his bag ......I hope the dance of Dollars will be spectacular and good bonuses this year and more EMPLOYMENT Opportunities....

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL OF US ... we all needed this fed cut for the job market to have a kick...

I am waiting for Sylvyn for his comments ...
 
I wanted it to go 0.5% but was very unsure of that :)

More employment would be very good as I will be looking for a full-time job in the near future :)
 
Dollar Drops to Record Low Versus Euro as Fed Cuts Half Point

Dollar Drops to Record Low Versus Euro as Fed Cuts Half Point

By Min Zeng

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record low against the euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point to 4.75 percent, the first reduction since 2003.

The Dollar Index against six other major currencies sank to the lowest since September 1992 after the Fed cut its target rate for overnight loans between banks by the most since November 2002 amid concern that the worst housing slump in 16 years and increased borrowing costs for companies may threaten economic growth. Most analysts predicted only a quarter-point cut.

``Growth and interest-rate differentials are both turning against the dollar,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the Global Markets group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon. ``This confirms the dollar bears' view. We are easily running toward $1.4 now. Probably within a week.''

The dollar fell to $1.3962 per euro at 2:46 p.m. in New York, from $1.3867 yesterday and touched a record low of $1.3980. The dollar breached the previous record low of $1.3927 per euro set on Sept. 13. The yen fell 0.5 percent to 115.75 per dollar on speculation the rate cut will encourage investors to borrow in yen to finance risky bets known as carry trades.

The U.S. currency also fell to a 30-year low of 98.37 U.S. cents per Canadian dollar.

``Developments in financial markets since the Committee's last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today. The FOMC ``will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.''

Quarter-Point Anticipated

The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 134 analysts was for a quarter-point cut. Only 23 economists forecast the Fed would lower the rate to 4.75 percent, while six expected no change.

The Fed's Board of Governors also lowered the rate on direct loans to banks by half a percentage point to 5.25 percent. The Fed had kept the benchmark overnight rate at 5.25 percent since June 2006.

``It's about the Fed's easing cycle,'' said Adam Boyton, a senior currency strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank AG, before the Fed decision. ``The Fed will cut the rate more than once, which paints a bearish picture for the dollar.''

Mortgage defaults by Americans with poor credit histories prompted the collapse of two hedge funds at Bear Stearns Cos. in June, triggering turmoil in the global debt markets and pushing up borrowing costs.

Fed Additions

The Fed added a total of $62 billion in temporary reserves through repurchase agreements, or repos, on Aug. 9 and 10, the most since September 2001, to ease a shortage of cash in money markets.

The central bank lowered its discount rate, or the cost of direct loans from the Fed, by 0.5 percentage point to 5.75 percent on Aug. 17, and cited the threat to economic growth. Just 10 days earlier, policy makers kept the target rate unchanged and maintained that inflation was the biggest danger to the economy.

The U.S. economy lost jobs for the first time in four years in August, fueling speculation the deepening housing recession and turmoil in credit markets are hurting the wider economy. Employers cut 4,000 workers last month, compared with a gain of 68,000 in July, the Labor Department said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Min Zeng in New York at mzeng2@bloomberg.net .

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aivOtnbteYME&refer=currency
 
that was my concern about lowered rates - further decline of the dollar.

here's a nice piece in the Economist about this:

spacer.gif



[FONT=verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif][SIZE=+1]Another shoe to drop
[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-2]Sep 13th 2007 | LONDON AND WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
[/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-2]Illustration by Satoshi Kambayashi[/SIZE][/FONT]
D3707FN1.jpg


[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1]It is how steadily the dollar is falling that counts, not how swiftly[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-2]Get article background[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1]FOR several years, the darkest scenarios for the world economy have involved a dollar crash. The script was simple. America's dependence on foreign capital was a dangerous vulnerability. At some point foreign investors would refuse to pile up ever more dollar assets. If investors were spooked, say by a crisis in American financial markets, they might ditch dollars fast. The greenback would plunge. A tumbling currency would prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates, deepening and spreading the economic pain. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] Well, the financial shock has hit, with investors shunning whole swathes of the asset-backed market and nervous about all manner of financial wizardry at which America excelled. But where is the stampede out of dollars? The greenback has fallen, to be sure, particularly since it has become clear that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates on September 18th, and particularly against the yen and the euro—the dollar hit an all-time low of $1.39 per euro on September 12th.[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] But the decline, so far, has hardly been a panicked rout. Although the dollar has plumbed historical depths against an index of major currencies, it has fallen by less than 1.5% since the financial turmoil hit in early August. Measured against a broader group of currencies that includes all America's main trading partners, the dollar is little changed from where it was before August's tumult began. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] As the first signs of trouble emerged, the dollar even rose. Far from fleeing greenbacks as the panic spread in mid-August, investors initially flocked to them. To some analysts this confirmed the dollar's status as a haven in troubled times. More likely, it was the consequence of unwinding leveraged bets elsewhere. Dollar short positions were cut sharply in August as investors reduced risk across the board. David Woo, a currency strategist at Barclays Capital, says the dollar got a temporary lift as investors unwound bets that the euro would rise relative to the yen. Brad Setser, an analyst at [SIZE=-1]RGE[/SIZE] Monitor, argues that European banks caught with asset-backed commercial paper may have been buying dollars for fear of being unable to roll over the short-term debt. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] Whatever the reason, the dollar's initial buoyancy did not last. In recent weeks the greenback has slowly fallen and the likely path of interest rates suggests there is more weakness to come. Figures released on September 7th showed that America's economy lost 4,000 jobs in August, rather than creating the 100,000 odd that forecasters had expected. Worse, the jobs figures for June and July were revised down dramatically. These gloomy statistics suggested that the economy was weakening well before the credit turmoil hit, and all but sealed the case for a cut in short-term interest rates on September 18th, certainly of a quarter point, perhaps by as much as half a percentage point. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] A series of speeches by Fed officials this week did little to dispel the presumption of lower rates. With Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, hinting strongly that euro-zone interest rates might rise again this year, it is no surprise that the dollar has hit new lows against the euro. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] Its path against the yen is harder to foresee. Japan's economy, too, seems to be in a spot of bother, with output falling in the second quarter according to figures released on September 10th. Though Japan's statistics are notoriously volatile, these figures make it much less likely that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in a hurry. That suggests the carry-trade (selling borrowed yen to invest elsewhere) will remain attractive, limiting the yen's rise.[/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif]The doomsday scenario[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] For true dollar pessimists, these cyclical considerations are only part of the story. Far more important, they argue, is the risk that the private investors and central banks that have been funding America's gaping current-account deficit become permanently less keen on dollar assets. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1]Ken Rogoff, an economist at Harvard University, and a dollar bear, argues that America's image as a great financial centre has been tarnished by the subprime mess. The “mystique” that has allowed America to borrow lavishly and cheaply has suffered a blow. The result, he argues, must be a lower dollar and higher interest rates in America relative to the rest of the world. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] Indeed, the complex structured-debt products that investors now shun have been an important source of financing for America's current-account deficit. In 2006 foreign investors, on net, bought some $400 billion of corporate-issued debt (including mortgage-backed securities not guaranteed by the government-sponsored housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). That is the equivalent of around half the current-account deficit. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] It is hard to know what share of this debt was asset-backed, let alone mortgage-backed. A survey by the Treasury department in mid-2006 suggests some 30% of the stock of corporate debt held by foreigners was (then) in the form of asset-backed securities and a little over half of that was mortgage-related. Those numbers are big enough that foreign flight from the mortgage-backed market, if not countered by eager buying of other types of American assets, could cause trouble for the dollar. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] The lesson of the past few weeks, however, is that this is unlikely to happen all of a sudden. And if private investors fret, central banks may well pick up the slack. The latest statistics from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggest that central banks have been reducing their holdings of dollars since August. But that may be an aberration since several central banks, such as Russia's, had to dip into their reserves to support their own currencies. Mr Setser points out that over the past few years central banks have consistently acted as a buffer to falling private demand for dollar assets. If private demand for dollars dwindles too fast, he expects the same thing to happen again. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] China, in particular, has little to gain from a dollar crash. With domestic inflation now at a ten-year high, China's politicians may be willing to let the yuan rise somewhat faster against the dollar. But they are unlikely to add to a rout, not least because that would make their exports much less competitive in America. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] Another argument against a sudden crash is that the dollar is already quite cheap. In real effective terms, it has slowly fallen by some 20% since its recent peak in 2002. That decline is already helping to shrink America's external deficit. Monthly trade figures for July showed exports growing at a 14% annual rate, whereas imports grew by 5%. This differential, notes Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs, is the biggest in years. Add in the probability of sharply slower domestic demand in America, and the current-account deficit could shrink a fair bit over the coming months. A smaller need for foreign funds would itself put a floor under the dollar. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif][SIZE=-1] All told, the doom-mongers' script may play out in reverse. Instead of a financial crisis prompting a dollar crash, it may accelerate the unwinding of the imbalances that had the worrywarts so unnerved in the first place. [/SIZE][/FONT]
 
When I got to my desk this morning, the traders started betting among themselves on how much the FED will lower the rate. It wasn't a question of if but how much. in the morning, it was a 50:50 split. By noon, majority people thinks it will be 50bps. They started calling around the desks at other banks to bet on it. It was a mad house.
When the FED announced the cut, people chat a bit but then there was a moment of "Now what ?". It's close to the end of the trading days so people just leave.

We will see how the market reacts tomorrow morning.
 
Did you make any bets, Andy? I bet a 25 basis point cut with my friend, and we all know how that went for me today.
 
Major indices went up because of the news. What do you think would have happened if the rate was cut down by 0.25%?
 
Central Banks Lack Tools to Fix `Panic of '07,' Moody's Says

Central Banks Lack Tools to Fix `Panic of '07,' Moody's Says

By Mark Pittman and Kabir Chibber

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks may not have the tools to restore stability to credit markets amid the ``Panic of '07,'' and instead should demand greater transparency from financial companies, Moody's Investors Service said today.

Derivatives and the growth of hedge funds using unprecedented amounts of debt have magnified the impact of a rise in borrowing costs, New York-based Moody's said in a report today.

``The new financial paradigm has brought with it some problems, which the world's financial policy technicians have not yet solved,'' Moody's said in a report by Vice Chairman Christopher Mahoney and Senior Vice President Pierre Cailleteau. ``Each credit crisis teaches new lessons, often resulting in corrective reforms. The current `Panic of '07' will as well.''

Central banks failed in their initial efforts last month to stem a credit crunch that was sparked by rising defaults on subprime mortgages. The banks used their traditional instruments for propping up markets such as adding cash to the financial system through overnight lending and cutting interest rates.

The cost of overnight borrowing in pounds rose yesterday by the most since June as the bailout of U.K. lender Northern Rock Plc stoked concern that more home-loan providers will be forced to seek emergency funding. The Bank of England yesterday made 4.4 billion pounds ($8.8 billion) of emergency loans to U.K. banks and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75 percent to prevent the economy from sinking into recession.

Halts, Closings

At least 110 mortgage companies have halted operations or sold themselves since the start of 2006, including American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., the Melville, New York-based lender. Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage company, was forced to tap bank credit lines after being shut out of the short-term debt market and banks provided $21.4 billion to shore up GMAC LLC, the lender owned by General Motors Corp. and Cerberus Management LP. Hedge funds, including two run by Bear Stearns Cos., collapsed and Newcastle, England-based Northern Rock sought its bailout last week.

Foreclosures set a record in the second quarter and overdue payments on U.S. subprime mortgages rose to the highest level in five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Moody's itself, as well as Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings, were criticized by investors, lawmakers and regulators for being too slow to respond to the rising defaults. The ratings companies are being probed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and policy makers including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet have pointed to possible conflicts of interest between the ratings companies and the banks that pay their fees.

`No Idea'

Moody's, S&P and Fitch waited until April to downgrade some subprime securities, after their value had fallen by as much as 80 cents on the dollar. Analysts have been updating ratings ``as fast as we can,'' Mahoney said.

Investors have an ``over-reliance on ratings for pricing,'' he said. Some ``have no idea what they have and they have no idea how to price it.''
The global financial system, Moody's said, has evolved from a ``sleepy'' world dominated by banks and fixed exchange to one in which capital flows across borders and is allocated by the market, not financial institutions.

No Control

Traditionally, the Fed's control over banks has enabled it to ease any credit crunch by adding money to the financial system, Moody's said. The Fed has almost no control over the hedge funds that are among the biggest investors now, Moody's said.

``The intensity of the impact of a financial shock on the economy will depend on the central banks' ability to restore `fluidity' throughout the system,'' Mahoney and Cailleteau said in the second of a series of reports addressing the crisis. ``We expect market and official pressure to require greater transparency from financial actors.''

In the previous report on Sept. 5, Mahoney and Cailleteau said the adjustment in prices of mortgage bonds tied to borrowers with poor credit will last at least six more months.
The next report from Moody's will study the role of credit rating companies in the market, Mahoney said in an interview.

The ``deficiencies exposed'' by the present turmoil are mostly the same as when Greenwich, Connecticut-based hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed after Russia defaulted in 1998, Mahoney and Cailleteau wrote.

``The greater the loss of confidence, the harder it is to restore and crucially the greater the erosion of confidence, the greater the contagion and the broader the financial safety net may have to be spread,'' the analysts said. ``This is the ultimate conundrum of the philosophy of market discipline.''

Rebundled Risks

Moody's last month said a hedge fund collapse on the same scale as LTCM was possible. Investment banks are facing larger losses than when LTCM had to be bailed out after wrong-way bets on global bond prices, Standard & Poor's said last month.

``Risks have been unbundled and rebundled into tradable instruments,'' the Moody's report said. ``The new financial world created by securitization had not been subjected to a stress test of this magnitude until now.''

Derivatives are financial instruments derived from bonds, loans, stocks, currencies and commodities, or linked to specific events like changes in the weather or interest rates.

``What turned an overdue risk reappraisal into a financial panic is the combination of untested financial innovation, price-sensitive accounting rules, leverage and opacity,'' Mahoney and Cailleteau said. ``This cocktail has proved explosive.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Pittman in New York at mpittman@bloomberg.net ; or Kabir Chibber in London at kchibber@bloomberg.net .

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aU8fUhVvB.Mo&refer=bond
 
End

I don't think cutting rate will help much. It is not the end yet.

The problems were caused by a few hedge funds. The losses are really unknown to the public and they do not want to disclose...or better don't.

I see the Dow will go south again and deeply to the bottom before end of this year based on current economic indicators.

China and US are in trade war. Chinese government is selling dollars to cause US problems so that they stop raising questions about the appreciation of RMB. Also, currency carry trade also an issue. One scenario is Japan interest rate is still very low. God..this is a mass.

I would sell off once it get higher and go side line to wait for a drop.:tiphat:
 
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