I think you're on to something, and your logic is spot on. All else equal, it's better to start studying earlier.
In my case, I did accept the offer in the first year for the school, shortly before learning my wife and I were expecting our 1st child. I was working, and it seemed prudent to save up more money before heading back.
CMU rejected me, which was a bummer, because I really thought their curriculum and the strength of the interns / graduates I had worked with was top notch. The second year, I received some very direct feedback from one of the programs which rejected me, suggesting I should do 6 more math courses (4 at graduate level) to meet the minimum standards for the program. I was still working full time, but I realized the only thing worse than being rejected would be to be accepted and fail out. I did the courses, re-applied, and was accepted to a few more programs than the first round, one of which was
CMU. It was a very hard choice, because the other two schools had updated their curriculums along the lines of what I hoped to learn.
Regarding COVID, I don't think we've seen a situation where the entire Global economy has just basically, well, stopped. There is clearly going to be a lot of pain, and a lot of repercussions. There is also going to be a lot of opportunity when the dust settles.
I can't pretend to say what that will look like.
I can say the skills, knowledge, and perspective I am gaining in grad school will help me to make the most of what comes my way.