ORSTAT2000 probability software and book Understanding Probability

[presto]

Just found the free software ORSTAT2000 on the website http://personal.vu.nl/h.c.tijms/ I think this is great software for getting a feel for probabilities. Also, I noticed on the website the book Understanding Probability by Henk Tijms. The book looks very interesting to me. Who can tell me how good this book is?

 

[Tsotne]

But seems to be short though. Just 14 chapters.

 

[bigbadwolf]

Also, I noticed on the website the book Understanding Probability by Henk Tijms. The book looks very interesting to me. Who can tell me how good this book is?

If you want to understand probability, it is an excellent first book. Or to be used as supplementary reading. I think the second edition has been out for a few years (I have the first). It's written in discursive style rather than stacccato definition-lemma-theorem-corollary style and the author takes pains to explain the ideas in English and to present worthwhile examples. It's a book to be savored and treasured.

 

[Tsotne]

1 Probability questions
2 The law of large numbers and simulation
2.1 The law of large numbers for probabilities
2.2 Basic probability concepts
2.3 Expected value and the law of large numbers
2.4 The drunkard’s walk
2.5 The St. Petersburg paradox
2.6 Roulette and the law of large numbers
2.7 The Kelly betting system
2.8 Random-number generator
2.9 Simulating from probability distributions
2.10 Problems
3 Probabilities in everyday life
3.1 The birthday problem
3.2 The coupon collector’s problem
3.3 Craps
3.4 Gambling systems for roulette
3.5 The 1970 draft lottery
3.6 Bootstrap method
3.7 Problems
4 Rare events and lotteries
4.1 The binomial distribution
4.2 The Poisson distribution
4.3 The hypergeometric distribution
4.4 Problems
5 Probability and statistics
5.1 The normal curve
5.2 The concept of standard deviation
5.3 The square-root law
5.4 The central limit theorem
5.5 Graphical illustration of the central limit
theorem
5.6 Statistical applications
5.7 Confidence intervals for simulations
5.8 The central limit theorem and random walks
5.9 Falsified data and Benford’s law
5.10 The normal distribution strikes again
5.11 Statistics and probability theory
5.12 Problems
6 Chance trees and Bayes’ rule
6.1 The Monty Hall dilemma
6.2 The test paradox
6.3 Problems

PART TWO: ESSENTIALS OF PROBABILITY
7 Foundations of probability theory
7.1 Probabilistic foundations
7.2 Compound chance experiments
7.3 Some basic rules
8 Conditional probability and Bayes
8.1 Conditional probability
8.2 Bayes’ rule in odds form
8.3 Bayesian statistics
9 Basic rules for discrete random variables
9.1 Random variables

9.2 Expected value
9.3 Expected value of sums of random variables
9.4 Substitution rule and variance
9.5 Independence of random variables
9.6 Special discrete distributions
10 Continuous random variables
10.1 Concept of probability density
10.2 Important probability densities
10.3 Transformation of random variables
10.4 Failure rate function
11 Jointly distributed random variables
11.1 Joint probability densities
11.2 Marginal probability densities
11.3 Transformation of random variables
11.4 Covariance and correlation coefficient
12 Multivariate normal distribution
12.1 Bivariate normal distribution
12.2 Multivariate normal distribution
12.3 Multidimensional central limit theorem
12.4 The chi-square test
13 Conditional distributions
13.1 Conditional probability densities
13.2 Law of conditional probabilities
13.3 Law of conditional expectations

14 Generating functions
14.1 Generating functions
14.2 Moment-generating functions
15 Markov chains
15.1 Markov model
15.2 Transient analysis of Markov chains
15.3 Absorbing Markov chains
15.4 Long-run analysis of Markov chains

Good for the introduction purposes. BTW, this is the book I had reviewed recently and I'm not sure if they have published the second one of this. And one correction, in above post I said there were 14 chapters - there are 15.