I think you are over complicating things for yourself. Admits and applications are very random and you can arrive at a situation where you might be getting an admit from, say,
CMU, and get a reject from somewhere like NYU Tandon. The admission process is very random. You have a strong profile, just work on your essays, SoPs, LoRs and just apply. Maybe segregate programs into buckets. Of the top of my head: Baruch/Princeton/Stanford/
CMU, Berkeley/Chicago/Cornell/NYU Courant/Columbia/MIT, NYU Tandon/UCLA, and apply to 2-ish programs in each bucket for round 1 and then see if you need to apply for more in round 2. But yeah, this odds thing is overcomplicating things way too much imho.