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UG Blackbox

Joined
10/18/12
Messages
13
Points
11
Forgive me if this is the wrong forum/site but I couldn't think of anywhere else to post this. Here is my situation:

Three undergrad students at my school (myself included), two MFE candidates, and a PhD candidate have been spending close to a year writing algorithms and developing our own "Black Box." We've back tested it to the 50's and consistently get no less then 5% returns a months, excluding around 10 months which we are trying to figure out why, we have also been running this program since December and have around a 15% return on a demo account. Here is my question, Is an average of 5-6% monthly returns large enough to try and market this and sell the service to companies? If so, how would you suggest we go about doing that?
 
1)A good Black box algo typically generate atleast 2:1 profit factor. Using optimization tool for intra day trading it may goes as high as 5:1 profit factor during trending.

Therefore by looking at % of return does not justify any credibility of the algo.

2) There have been too many retail back box algo out there who are competing with the similarity performances. IMO with the present qualification of yours, u should go one step ahead of others by developing HFT.
 
Am I understanding you correctly in that you claim 60%+ returns per annum, over a 50 year period?
 
Forgive me if this is the wrong forum/site but I couldn't think of anywhere else to post this. Here is my situation:

We've back tested it to the 50's and consistently get no less then 5% returns a months, excluding around 10 months which we are trying to figure out why?

From this here I'd estimate that your sharpe ratio is a 3-5. This sort of sharpe ratio is impossible to achieve on the resolution of most data from 50s-70s. What is the granularity of the data that you're using? How does the backtest sharpe ratio compare to your realized sharpe ratio? Returns mean nothing without weighting them by risk.
Forgive me if this is the wrong forum/site but I couldn't think of anywhere else to post this. Here is my situation:

Here is my question, Is an average of 5-6% monthly returns large enough to try and market this and sell the service to companies? If so, how would you suggest we go about doing that?

If this is such a great black box then why would you want to sell it to anyone? That would be giving away all of your "secret sauce" and your upside of riches. Anyone you try to sell it you will ask you this question first and foremost.
 
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