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Banks May Pool Billions to Avert Securities Sell-Off

Joined
12/23/06
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By ERIC DASH
Published: October 14, 2007


Several of the world's biggest banks are in talks to put up about $75 billion in a backup fund that could be used to buy risky mortgage securities and other assets, a move designed to ease pressure on a crucial part of the credit markets that threatens the broader economy.
Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, along with several other financial institutions, have been meeting to come up with a plan to create a fund that could prevent a sharp sell-off in securities owned by bank-affiliated investment vehicles. The meetings, which began three weeks ago, have been orchestrated by senior officials at the Treasury Department, and the discussions have intensified in the last few days.
A broad framework for an agreement could be reached as early as tomorrow, according to people with knowledge of the discussions, but many important details still need to be hammered out. Another round of discussions is taking place this weekend, and it is still possible that the parties will not reach an agreement.
"Treasury is very serious about getting some solution in place to take away the fear hanging over the markets," said Alex Roever, a credit analyst at JPMorgan Chase who has been following the discussions but is not involved in them. "It is a very challenging thing to do. There are so many parties involved and they all don't agree.
The proposal echoes the 1998 bailout of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, when a group of big banks came together to prevent the fund from collapsing after it made a series of bad bets. And the current round of crisis-driven collaboration illustrates the heightened level of concern among both government and financial players.
While there are signs that the broader credit markets have begun to stabilize after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last month, a pocket of the commercial paper market remains under siege: structured investment vehicles, known as SIVs. The fear is that problems with these vehicles could infect the broader economy.
SIVs, which issue short-term notes to invest in longer-term securities with higher yields, are often organized by banks but are not actually owned or held by them. They are supposed to be financed through the issuance of commercial paper backed by pools of home loans and credit card debt, but the loss of confidence in the quality of subprime mortgage bonds has also tainted these securities.
Analysts say that investors have all but stopped buying SIV-affiliated commercial paper, and the worry is that the 30 or so SIVs will unload billions of dollars of mortgage-related assets all at once. That would put intense pressure on prices. As Wall Street firms and hedge funds mark value of similar investments they held to their new lower values, they face potentially huge hits to their profits.
Still, the impact on the biggest banks is even more severe. In times of crisis, they are committed — either legally or to maintain their reputations — to stepping in to buy those securities. Banks have already been buying significant amounts of commercial paper in recent weeks, even though they did not have to. But if they are forced to bring those assets onto their balance sheets, they might be less willing to lend to businesses and consumers. That could set off a credit crunch and thrust the economy into a recession.
The proposal being floated calls for the creation of a "Super-SIV," or a SIV-like fund fully backed by several of the world's biggest banks to provide emergency financing. The Super-SIV would issue short-term notes to finance the purchase of assets held by the SIVs affiliated with the banks, with the hope of reassuring investors.
But whether the banks would buy the assets directly or just buy the short-term debt is still unclear, according to people briefed on the situation. So are other aspects, like the amount of capital each bank would need to contribute, how it would be administrated, and the fee structures and cost burdens.
The effort to create a backup fund began about three weeks ago, when the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson, called a meeting in Washington that included the chief executives of Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan and other big banks. With Wall Street firms having almost no luck finding buyers for mortgage-backed securities and derivatives, Mr. Paulson wanted to see what could be done to relieve the bottleneck.
Several rounds of discussions followed — in Washington, New York and on conference calls — led by two senior Treasury Department officials: Robert Steel, the under secretary for domestic finance and a former Goldman Sachs executive who is a close adviser Mr. Paulson; and Anthony Ryan, a former investment banker who is now assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets.
Besides hearing from senior executives from each of the big banks, the group also sought ideas from others. Several big international banks, including Barclays and HSBC, have been asked about their interest in participating. The group also reached out to several of the major structured investment funds, as well as big institutional investors in the commercial paper markets.
 
Bloomberg says $80 billion :)

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will announce as soon as tomorrow that they are establishing a fund of about $80 billion aimed at reviving the asset-backed commercial paper market, said people familiar with the plan.
 
As I read somewhere, this might have caused Monday's drop in indices.
 
The contrarian opinion is a bit different .... :sos:

New! Master-Liquidity Enabler Conduit
10/15/2007 5:10:14 PM
Stock markets closed lower today, Monday, October 15, 2007
by Alan Hall
Move aside, Long Term Capital Management and Resolution Trust Corporation. Here comes "Super SIV," the brand-new Master-Liquidity Enhancement Conduit (actually, I think my article title is more appropriate), a consolidation bailout for banks entangled in the sweaty, bad-credit quagmire of Subprime Swamp.

When Long Term Capital Management -- the hedge fund directed (among others) by winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics-- failed in 1997, it lost about $4.6 billion in less than four months. That was chump change compared to the approximate $125 billion in government-subsidized losses of the Resolution Trust Corporation during the Savings and Loan Crisis back in the 1980s. John Kenneth Galbraith called that one "the largest and costliest venture in public misfeasance, malfeasance and larceny of all time."
The S&L Crisis was a whopper. Brookings Institution scholar Martin Mayer called it "the worst public scandal in American history," and said it "makes Teapot Dome and Credit Mobilier seem minor episodes." The S&L Crisis ushered in the huge budget deficits of the early 1990's and contributed to the 1990- 1991 economic recession. Most attribute those events to other causes, rather than to the wave of negative social mood that sank the stock market and uncovered the Iran-Contra affair, the HUD grant-rigging scandal, the lobbying scandal, the EPA controversy, and resulted in hundreds of Reagan and Bush administration officials who quit, were fired, arrested, indicted, convicted and/or pardoned.

S&L may yet be eclipsed. "The cost of the subprime crisis continues to mount on Wall Street. To date, the total stands at nearly $20 billion." (CNNMoney.com) Other estimates go far higher, dwarfing the S&L's $125 billion. "Ultimately, the total cost to ride out the storm would be more than any consortium of banks could afford." (USA Today)
The latest "Super-SIV" emergency financing scheme is an effort to enable the continuation of the credit binge. Some of the world's biggest banks plan to put about $100 billion in a fund that will be used to replace the investors who have stopped buying SIV-affiliated commercial paper.

"Details are still being worked out but the oversight committee of the three banks [Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America] will set criteria for what the new fund, to be called the Master-Liquidity Enhancement Conduit, will buy." (Wall Street Journal)
If investors don't want the stuff, banks have to put it on their balance sheets and take the loss unless they can find another buyer, which it appears they intend to create.

Mary Shelley would be proud. Where did I leave my pitchfork?
This effort looks eerily similar to 1929, when the Rockefellers and William C. Durant pooled capital to buy large quantities of stocks to demonstrate their confidence in the markets to the public. The crash continued and the market lost $30 billion that week, ten times the annual budget of the federal government and more than the U.S. spent in World War I.

The Treasury Department is all for it, and issued a statement: “This proposal will complement other solutions investors and asset managers may utilize in committing and deploying capital to support more efficient markets.” One credit analyst said the Treasury's blessing of the fund gives it a "veneer of respectability" that smacks of a "P.R. blitz" to "soothe tense investors in the debt market." (New York Times)
A visiting scholar with the conservative American Enterprise Institute said, "I have never seen Treasury play this kind of role." [The banks made] "riskier investments that didn't work out. They should now put it back on their balance sheet." (WSJ)
As the liquidity vise tightens, the great margin call of 2007 will continue to spread, and the markets for mortgages and an alphabet soup of CLO, CDO and SIV investments will constrict further… Never underestimate the power of denial at a Grand Supercycle degree peak. It is so powerful now that financiers, who got where they are today by trusting the wisdom of the market, can turn around and say to their clients with a straight face, “We’ll pay you back later when the market figures out we’re right.” (October Elliott Wave Financial Forecast)
Many people enable their alcoholic relative because both are in denial. It's fascinating to watch society and the government enabling credit addiction... because both are in denial. The fortunate few recognize the disease it for what it is.
 
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