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Beware of geeks bearing formulas

Joined
2/7/08
Messages
3,261
Points
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Has anyone got a link to this statement, purportedly made by Warren Buffett relatively recently? I haven't found it myself but did come across this interesting blog entry (marred only by the occasional spelling slip):

The turmoil at AIG is likely to fan skepticism about the complicated, computer-driven modeling systems that many financial giants rely on to minimize risk. As chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which owns insurance companies, Warren Buffett has been sounding the alarm about the issue for years. Recently, he told PBS interviewer Charlie Rose: “All I can say is, beware of geeks…bearing formulas.”

...On a rainy morning last week, Mr. Gorton briefly discussed with his Yale students how perplexing the struggles of the financial world have become. About 30 graduate students listened as Mr. Gorton lamented how problems in one sector caused investors to question value all across the board. Said Mr. Gorton: “There doesn’t seem to be a fundamental reason why.”

My comments

Geek, idiot, imbecile, over-paid bozo, misleading liar, LaLa land guru, Larry, Curly & Moe all rolled into one, moron with a degree, Menace to society - teaching future menace’s to society, and more…

Personally, I feel this guy was so dumb, that they should have watered him twice a week.

Yep, It’s hard to believe that people can rely in computer models to determine anything. So when someone talks about Efficeint frontier, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Black-Scholes, Nobel Prize winning theories, Black Box, for your sanity - please tune them out!

Remember the more formulaes - the more BS
 
The blog article was pretty compelling and makes Gorton sound like a bit of a charlatan. What's the moral of the story? Just because someone has a PhD and is a professor at Yale doesn't mean their risk model is infallible and that a model is just a starting point for Risk analysis.

A secondary question is how can we improve today's risk models to make them more robust to these type of worst case scenarios. I think it would be a mistake to throw out quantitative and statistical risk modelling altogether because it failed in this historic time period.
 
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