Food riots and assorted calamities: just idle fear-mongering?

[bigbadwolf]

Found this on Nouriel Roubini's site:

The recent 93 percent collapse of the obscure Baltic Dry Index – an index of the cost of chartering bulk cargo vessels for goods like ore, cotton, grain or similar dry tonnage – has caused a bit of a stir among the financial cognoscenti. What is less discussed amidst the alarm is the reason for the collapse of the index – the collapse of trade credit based on the venerable letter of credit.

... If cargo trade stops, the wheat doesn’t get exported. If the wheat doesn’t get exported, the mill has nothing to grind into flour. If there is no flour, the bakeries and food processors can’t produce bread and pasta and other foods. If there are no foods shipped from the bakeries and factories, there are no foods in the shops. If there are no foods in the shops, people go hungry. If people go hungry their children go hungry. When children go hungry, people riot and governments fall.

Everyone along the supply chain should worry about their children going hungry.

When that happens, everyone in governments should worry about the riots.

Don't know how plausible this scenario is. But then again, if countries like Argentina that have been prosperous in the past can have riots (as in 2001), why should the US be exempt?

Ah, before I forget -- and I don't how seriously (if at all) a commentator like Gerard Celente should be taken -- but here is a YouTube video on a (similar) prognosis of riots by him:

YouTube - Fox Business: Gerald Celente Predicts Revolution 11/10/08

 

[bigbadwolf]

Dmitry Orlov posted a presentation on US collapse a couple of years ago, which can be found here. And here is a bit of analysis by him on the five stages of collapse.