Forecasts for 2013

[bigbadwolf]

To get the ball rolling here's Dmitry's:

When I arrived in Russia in the summer of 1990, I asked my uncle a simple question: “So, how much longer before the Bolsheviks give up?” He responded with a vulgar but very funny joke, which I translate as follows: “Do you know what's with the Soviet Dildo? Well, it still buzzes, but it doesn't vibrate any more.” (Here's the ruder, and funnier, Russian original version: “Что такое советская жужжалка для жопы?—Жужжит, а в жопу не лезет.”) And, sure enough, less than two years later the Soviet Dildo stopped buzzing too. Perhaps you've realized this already on your own, but in case you haven't: I do believe that the American Dildo has stopped vibrating some time ago. The remaining question is, When will it also stop buzzing? What do you think?"

 

[daleholborow]

bigbadwolf - how do you rate dmitry's actual books I see linked on his website?

 

[bigbadwolf]

bigbadwolf - how do you rate dmitry's actual books I see linked on his website?

I've got his book "Reinventing Collapse" and have read all of it. I was so impressed with it I even organised a discussion about it last year. In case you haven't already seen it, here is his essay on the "collapse gap," which he wrote seven years ago. I also recommend Greer's "The Long Descent" and his blog. The difference between the two is that Orlov anticipates a (discontinuous) political, economic, and social collapse whereas Greer sees a continuous spiral of decline and decay. Both see similar causes: exhaustion of fossil fuels and resources generally. Writing along similar lines you will find James Howard Kunstler and Richard Heinberg. Speaking of books, I'm still waiting for the paperback version of Biel's "The Entropy of Capitalism," the publication date for which keeps getting pushed back further and further.

 

[bigbadwolf]

Greer's latest blog post, along similar lines, but taking a longer-term view.

As the impact of the tribute economy spread throughout US society, in turn, it became next to impossible to make a living doing anything productive, and gaming the imperial system in one way or another—banking, investment, government contracts, you name it—turned into the country’s sole consistent growth industry.

 

[bigbadwolf]

Dmitry's forecast for 2014:

The equation that best describes the stock market at the moment is y=mt+b, a.k.a. the first order linear equation. Meaning, some market index or other (y) must be roughly equal to some fudge factor m (called the slope) times time t plus some base offset b (called the intercept). The way I imagine that works is, a bunch of gnomes that inhabit the entrails of big finance and have access to an endless supply of newly printed dollars lean on the "buy" button periodically to make sure that the index increases monotonically. (Actually, the gnomes might be robots, in which case we could all go extinct and the stock market would still continue to go up.) So, my prediction is that this will continue happening until something breaks. Nobody knows when it will break, or why, because printing money and using it to prop up the price of stocks is a brilliant business plan that can continue working forever. Yes, I know that some people are pointing out that nothing goes up forever. Look at the housing bubble circa 2008, they say, or the internet stock bubble circa 2000. Bubbles always pop, they say. Naysayers! Well, what I want to say to these naysayers is this: This Time It's Different. This is a new and amazing breakthrough: infinite wealth creation is now achievable through infinite money printing. It's like the Singularity! (Remember, you heard it here first.)

 

[Canuck]

This guy needs to cite his source material...