Quantitative Easing (QE2)

[darth]

Any Comments on whether this is going to work or not?

 

[Joy Pathak]

What do you think?

 

[ThinkDifferent]

(1 point) Continue the sequence QE1, QE2, ?, ?,.....

 

[darth]

A Paralyzed Fed Defers Decision On Monetary Policy To Primary Dealers In An Act That Can Only Be Classified As Treason



http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/fed-paralysis-2010-10-27-durden.pdf

 

[Yike Lu]

A Paralyzed Fed Defers Decision On Monetary Policy To Primary Dealers In An Act That Can Only Be Classified As Treason

http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/fed-paralysis-2010-10-27-durden.pdf

Reads like a conspiracy theory.

 

[HyperVolatility]

The Fed knows perfectly well that this is not going to be enough. it is just a desperate attempt to convince naive investors to buy in order to keep up the market.

Some journalists are hiding purposely some news with a specific aim : BLIND PEOPLE !!!

let's be honest: would you bet a large stake of your savings in this market(apart from gold or silver) ?

The buying we saw lately has been backed by the hope that the Fed would continue to pump money in the economy but that will plummet the dollar and another question arises: how long can european countries afford an undervalued dollar? Surely it is convenient for the US export but the EU one is going to collapse if the euro keeps appreciating.

I am not expecting a double dip but i think that a severe retracement will occur

 

[Joy Pathak]

The Fed knows perfectly well that this is not going to be enough. it is just a desperate attempt to convince naive investors to buy in order to keep up the market.

Some journalists are hiding purposely some news with a specific aim : BLIND PEOPLE !!!

let's be honest: would you bet a large stake of your savings in this market(apart from gold or silver) ?

The buying we saw lately has been backed by the hope that the Fed would continue to pump money in the economy but that will plummet the dollar and another question arises: how long can european countries afford an undervalued dollar? Surely it is convenient for the US export but the EU one is going to collapse if the euro keeps appreciating.

I am not expecting a double dip but i think that a severe retracement will occur

if you want to read weekly volatility forecast on major markets visit my website www.hypervolatility.com

I just ventured to your "website"...

Lol You said this on 24th and 31st October on your website for S&P E-minis. How did that short trade work out for you?

The TGARCH volatility plot is now upward sloping and it would not be surprising to see readings about 2% – 2.5%. Even if this market appears really strong under a technical point of view the staff of HyperVolatility again suggests that the current condition is a favourable opportunity to go short.

Therefore, we again advise you to close out your long positions and walk away (if you are risk -averse) but that would be the 2nd best solution because the first answer to such a volatility forecast would be an heavy selling.

Likewise, the question that we ask you is the same one that we proposed the last week: HOW LOW CAN THE VOLATILITY GET ???

 

[Ezra]

I think the wealth effect is very real, and QE2 will be effective in stimulating the economy in that regard. Will it bring the unemployment rate back to 5%? Probably not, but it could help keep the recovery on track by instilling confidence.

The movement in gold and long term treasuries show investors have dramatically adjusted upward their expectation for inflation. And I think that was one of the chief aims of Benny B, to avoid having the US fall into a deflationary spiral.

But the question then becomes whether the Fed can soak up the liquidity before it turns into runaway inflation, and whether congress will address the structural deficits before the US Dollar loses its credibility.

 

[HyperVolatility]

The QE2 brought more clouds than sunny days to financial markets. the S&P500, Nadaq, DJ EuroStoxx and so on did not really react like it was expected they would because they started to jump up and down without taking a clear direction.

I remain highly sceptic because these measures are simply hiding the real situation:

1. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH
2. MARKETS ARE DOPED
3. PRICES ARE FAR HIGHER THAN WHAT THEY SHOULD BE
4. SUCH HIGH PRICES ARE COMPLETELY UNJUSTIFIED
5. PEOPLE ARE BUYING OVER FEELINGS
6. IN THE LONG RUN FUNDAMENTALS ARE ALWAYS RIGHT

I just posted the new weekly volatility forecasts for the most important markets on my blog www.hypervolatility.com

any comment or suggestion will be welcomed

 

[darth]

I agree to most of what you have to say and specially "We are not in a bull market.We are not in a bear market.We are in a DOPED MARKET !!!"

Although I doubt the statement " Market prices are not justified at all by the current economic conditions.

This is very subjective. One can prove even 1300 SnP is justified at current earnings

 

[HyperVolatility]

I agree to most of what you have to say and specially "We are not in a bull market.We are not in a bear market.We are in a DOPED MARKET !!!"

Although I doubt the statement " Market prices are not justified at all by the current economic conditions.

This is very subjective. One can prove even 1300 SnP is justified at current earnings

I stated that prices are not justified because in the past such macro economic conditions would have never broguht the S&P500 to a 2 months rally !!!
Obviously, that is my opinion and therefore biased but I based my analysis on what happened in the past.

THX FOR READING MY WEBSITE

 

[bigbadwolf]

Interesting essay by Michael Hudson.