- Joined
- 4/12/09
- Messages
- 56
- Points
- 18
After I read Fooled by Randomness, I was inspired: Taleb/Nero's trading style, of steady bleeding in anticipation of huge gains, and his profiting from the stubborn human vices of failing to acknowledge Black Swans and assuming the world would conform to mathematical models, seemed like something I'd like to explore professionally.
Naturally, when I finished that book I went on to devour The Black Swan. Having romanticized the excitement of his career while occasionally disparaging steady, "unscalable" jobs as boring, he then goes on to say "But don't do what I did! I was just in the right place at the right time!", citing monstrous, unfair payoffs to the lucky as sufficient deterrent from the life of a trader.
I treat this advice as I treat all advice these days: I neither accept nor reject it, but just keep it in mind as I grow and learn, trying not to think too much about it until it becomes relevant.
Nevertheless, I am still put off by the apparent contradiction. I was wondering if anyone here had any thoughts on this issue. Also, many of you work in the financial sector of NYC or another big city; do you know any successful traders who are willing to look at Taleb's arguments with stone-cold realism--i.e., willing to consider, with balanced humility, the role of luck in their success?
Naturally, when I finished that book I went on to devour The Black Swan. Having romanticized the excitement of his career while occasionally disparaging steady, "unscalable" jobs as boring, he then goes on to say "But don't do what I did! I was just in the right place at the right time!", citing monstrous, unfair payoffs to the lucky as sufficient deterrent from the life of a trader.
I treat this advice as I treat all advice these days: I neither accept nor reject it, but just keep it in mind as I grow and learn, trying not to think too much about it until it becomes relevant.
Nevertheless, I am still put off by the apparent contradiction. I was wondering if anyone here had any thoughts on this issue. Also, many of you work in the financial sector of NYC or another big city; do you know any successful traders who are willing to look at Taleb's arguments with stone-cold realism--i.e., willing to consider, with balanced humility, the role of luck in their success?