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Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds

billy d

Baruch MFE, Class '11
Joined
2/2/10
Messages
28
Points
18
As Wall Street hangs on the question “Will Greece default?,” the author heads for riot-stricken Athens, and for the mysterious Vatopaidi monastery, which brought down the last government, laying bare the country’s economic insanity. But beyond a $1.2 trillion debt (roughly a quarter-million dollars for each working adult), there is a more frightening deficit. After systematically looting their own treasury, in a breathtaking binge of tax evasion, bribery, and creative accounting spurred on by Goldman Sachs, Greeks are sure of one thing: they can’t trust their fellow Greeks.

Great article and great story.

Check out the full article at:
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

goldman.jpg


Thank you to Professor Stefanica for the reference:)
 
Again we see GS in the centre of something bad, but again the blame that we can apportion to them is less than meets the eye.

As clubs feature in the sex suit, so they form an analogy to the Greek situation.
If a pair of pretty 15 year old girls turn up at the door of a club with an "over 21" door policy, odds are that if they say they are most likely to be let in.

So it was with Greece joining the Euro. No one, anywhere believed the numbers it emitted, and certainly not the German / French politicians.

There were criteria to join the Euro in terms of state finances, that were fudged by all the members, indeed it was said that the only EU state that actually met them was Britain which chose not to join.

For various reasons the pretty girls / Greek government decided to fake an ID, to get into the club.
They enlisted GS to help them, who did a good job, as they were paid to do.

But even if their fake ID had been hand drawn on toilet tissue, it would have been accepted.

The goal of the Euro project is European unity, not making European richer.

All the Euro states are tier one democracies, even Austria who sees nothing wrong in choosing members of the SS (yes, that SS) for its government.

So a bunch of democratic governments did something that their electorates approved of. Although the details were not widely known, pretty much every serious newspaper (and a few who use topless women to illustrate the news), told them that the finances were fudged.

This raises the question of whether a private firm like GS has the right to thwart the policies of a government. GS could not only have refused the deal, but taken steps to have made it unlikely that anyone else would.

So at what point should a bank impose it's own values on others ?
 
Greeks have never trusted each other! Spend some time there :p

Classic Greek Tragedy : A Greek suffers some serious misfortune which is not accidental, and is significant in that the misfortune is logically connected with the actions of the Greek's .

Modern Greek Tragedy: ALL Greeks suffer serious misfortune which is not accidental, and is significant in that the misfortune is logically connected with the actions of ALL Greeks

edit: maybe replace 'All' with 'Majority', hehe.
 
GS is not to blame. Change GS by some other firm (ie, MS, JPM, etc, etc) and they would've done the exact same thing.
 
It is always the same issue. People don't want to deal with problems and leave them for the next one to fix. The US gov't has been employing the same strategy with its debt. Unfortunately, the greek problem could not be hidden anymore, but here in the US we can do something before its too late for the US and the rest of the world. The question is simple: "Will the Americans be the next Greeks?"
 
Greece

Thanks for posting the link, that was a fascinating article. I was over in Greece in 2007 and none of this comes as a surprise. The fact you can walk down a shopping street and pirated goods are sold openly demonstrates just how powerful the black market is there.

As a side note something caught my eye in it:

“We have this adviser in the American stock market,” says the monk. “His name is Robert Chapman. [I’d never heard of him. He turned out to be the writer of a newsletter about global finance.] Father Arsenios is wondering what you think of him. Whether he is worth listening to …”
I thought that name sounded familiar and it does. This guy is on those conspiracy theory radio shows like Alex Jones (the ones always hawking gold). I did a quick google and up pops Bob Chapman's website "the international forecaster" complete with a section of books on conspiracy theories:

"http://theinternationalforecaster.com/Must_Read_Books"

Brotherhood of darkness looked like a particularly hilarious read!

I knew Greece was in a mess, but you've gotta be scraping the bottom of the barrel if you're resorting to taking financial advice off people like this.
 
While I found the entire article interesting and very revealing for the Greek situation in particular, I found this quote the most interesting from a worldwide perspective:

Entire countries were told, “The lights are out, you can do whatever you want to do and no one will ever know.” What they wanted to do with money in the dark varied. Americans wanted to own homes far larger than they could afford, and to allow the strong to exploit the weak. Icelanders wanted to stop fishing and become investment bankers, and to allow their alpha males to reveal a theretofore suppressed megalomania. The Germans wanted to be even more German; the Irish wanted to stop being Irish. All these different societies were touched by the same event, but each responded to it in its own peculiar way.

It got me thinking about how the investment of borrowed funds relates to long term solvency. E.g. if you buy a huge house with borrowed money, how easy is it to monetize that house when your creditors come knocking? What if you buy a college education with your borrowed money? etc etc
 
I believe it was Keynes who said "if you owe the bank a £1,000 you have a problem, owe them a million, the bank has the problem.
Of course the numbers are bigger these days, but the principle still holds.

Greece has a variation on this, because the government is owed money by literally millions of people.
The simple answer is to collect the taxes, but the problems are multi layered.

Collecting taxes where you didn't collect them before is in effect a massive tax rate increase. People will go from effectively zero to 30-60%.
A simple way of avoiding this is to bribe tax officials, and/or politicians. One only has to look at the American pork barrel to see how 'legitimate' politicians 'help important local employers'.

The government will go after easy targets, which means ordinary workers, since the cash is easy to get. Rich people have resources that allow them to hide and move their money, that's why they are rich, and it would be rational for a rich person to spend 25% of the cash avoiding tax on the rest. That is a huge, highly motivated enemy, some of whom have 'links' to political figures.

Also, a good number are celebrities. Look at the soft treatment given to celebs when their chemical abuse kills themselves or others, or when their thugs beat up random people. The press will defend their own here, making it politically tough.

The mix of assets owned by rich Greeks will also cause distortions.
It's hard to move some to other countries, so the taxes will fall more on those with property than cash, and since the tax burden is on fewer people, the static asset owners will get it tougher than they would if you had a more equitable process.

Also, it's easier to tax income than wealth, because the movement creates a paper trail.

That means Greece will levy heavier taxes on people that generate wealth than people whose parents generated or stole wealth. That's not good for an economy.

One solution is to put up VAT (sales taxes), but firstly this affects the poor more, but also needs the society it is in not to be wholly corrupt. Also VAT increases the incentive to be corrupt on outside the formal economy.
Some EU VAT rates are 25%, yes really, and so we see why NewHavenCT sees pirated goods.

VAT works by 'value add'
If I buy goods from a legitimate firm, they charge me VAT.
When I sell them, I charge my customer VAT

The difference between the two numbers is the tax sent to the government.

So, if I buy legit goods, it is expensive for me not to charge VAT.
But if I buy pirated goods, odds are that they won't charge me VAT, and of course I won't need to charge it either.

Thus even before you allow for the fact that legit goods are more expensive at source, I can sell a pirate copy that cost me just as much for 25% less. Of course with pirated goods, my costs are lower anyway.
Same with services.
I would like to use an established firm of plumbers, but they have to add between 18% (in Britain) and 25% in much of Europe to their bill. That means black market suppliers of services can charge a lot less. Add in employment taxes et al, and the cash price of services can easily be 30% lower, and some will refuse to do business any other way.

This is an example of how high taxes cause what most people would see as immorality.
 
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