While there is ample historical data that can help us infer what an MFE grad can expect to earn out of graduation, I find that it's often tough to extrapolate that number to the years going forward. Sometimes, all it takes for you to rake in big numbers is just being in the hot group that's earning massive fees. (And, remember, often times placement in groups are really arbitrary -- you get placed where an empty seat is available).
Also, pay close attention to the graph that Andy brought you from a well-known finance message board; as you rose among the ranks in a financial institution, your compensation package is dominated more by the bonus component rather than the base component. However, from my experience, at the higher ranks the bonus component is strongly determined by your ability to bring business to the firm (more fees! consequently, this statement is less true for S&T). That is, an MD should not only be a technical specialist that knows very well the product he is selling, but also able to close out deals by convincing customers to source business to his/her firm. At that point, probably your communication ability plays a role more important than your stochastic calculus knowledge.
To that end, I find the compensation variability increases greatly beyond a certain point. As your mix of work changes from purely technical into a combination of technical and managerial, some of us make the leap into the dark political realm of directors where the bonus pot is bigger. The ones who cannot play the game of office politics, stay as specialists. This is not to say that you cannot make big bucks without undertaking a managerial role.. but I often find that it's tougher to do that since this means you have to be always making the next awesome model, or killing the markets year in year out.
