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Is Law School a Losing Game?

On this forum I have more than once suggested to some people that stats might be a better masters for them, being cheaper and as you say applicable to pretty much every industry. It doesn't rule you out of quant jobs either.
 
Or CS. But no one listens to me >.<
I would be interested in hearing from hiring managers / industry professionals regarding the relative strength of applicants with significant work experience in finance AND a CS masters vs Math Finance degree. Any thoughts?
 
bullion mentions CS and that prompts me to a line of thought based upon a Quant headhunter's grasp of financial economics, a disclaimer in itself...

When I give career advice a common theme is that "easy, riskless" ways to make money are inherently unstable, enough that "riskless" should be treated in the high frequency trading sense, if you can grab the cash now then do so with my blessing, but don't treat it as a long term source of income.
I'm rather hoping that this is not in any way an controversial idea in this sort of forum.

Law was for many years on some sort of efficient frontier, indeed my wife who has formal qualifications in economics from Oxford, but who also scored a role in IBM's research labs at 18 is now a scary lawyer who has been regularly using the word "bubble" for some years in terms of fees and incomes.

The tech industry can be modelled really quite well as a series of bubbles that overlap and the sort of work that MFEs do although it is labelled "banking" not only highly technology based but shows many of the same characteristics with product types coming and going at a frequency that makes the idea of "career stability" almost naively optimistic.

But the energy industry is like that as well, and my friends in pharma look really worried and their concerns are from different causes than other lines of work.

In short, I don't think there is anything special, good or bad about law and finance both of which are showing signs of the sort of mean reversion you expect in markets where infinite demand cannot happen and increasingly supply saturates. What we're seeing in law and to an extent finance is a second order effect where the attractive risk/return attracted enough people that it helped destabilise itself. If you've done reaction kinetics then you can see in your head what I'm seeing in mine and it's worth remembering that the Le Chatelier's principle you did in market modelling actually came from physical chemistry.

So what about CS ?
My first remark is that many CS qualifications are really shit, shallow and limited in career antifrgaility and if you ain't read a preprint of NNTs book, you need to do that now, but in the mean time here is a link to my view of the mid term (3 year) market for Java skills :http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/10/04/programming_skills_java_bubble/

Although CS skills are increasing in supply (especially Java) the supply seems to be increasing at least as fast and now that the barriers are so low, in terms of the hardware and s/w costs (low and zero) we can expect supply to catch up and overtake demand.

So I don't see a safe harbour except medical school and in the US medical costs show every sign of a bubble of which I am aware, that will end badly, though it's beyond my wit to work out the exact mechanism.

So in the midst of dark pessimism my advice is to find out where you are most ahead of other people, where skills are valued and where you can see a way to keep those skills current with the market. Skills like stats or SQL that apply to multiple industries and technologies offer better area under the earnings curve.
 
I did research a while ago on law and the conclusion I came to was much the same as everyone else: there are too many lawyers in the country.
Here's the link to Yale's (the no.1 program) placement data:
http://www.law.yale.edu/admissions/cdoprospectivestudentstats.htm

And the shocking things to note are:
- The industry standard is to report employment status 9-months (!!) after graduation
- Less than 40% hit those big bucks at law firm jobs
- The median salary is $65,000, while the 75 percentile is $160,000. So, more than half the class isn't immediately getting a great ROI.

All from the no.1 law school in the country!

What you have to take into account is the fact that not everyone goes after $160K "biglaw" jobs. A good number, especially at top law schools such as Yale, Stanford, and Harvard, self-select into either prestigious Article III clerkships or do PI/gov't work. The link you provided states right there that more students (36%) went for clerkships than law firms. For those doing PI (and thus earning that much lower 5 figure salary) they pay back loans using LRAP (loan repayment assistance programs). The exact terms differ from school to school, and the gov't offers its own LRAP option as well, but if you're below a certain salary threshold they'll pay back a portion of your loans. I think after 10 years or so the remainder is automatically paid off (however, if you one day decide to take a biglaw job then they'll stop repaying at that point).

Also, at Yale, they don't reveal grades to law firms so the firms can't rank students and figure out who's the best like they do at most other schools. This means even the bottom 20% at Yale have a good chance of securing $160k if they want it. There are always exceptions to this, so I'm sure there are individuals who graduate and can't find employment, but I think 9 month employment is like 95% or so on average.

Don't quote me on the exact numbers I've given, but basically the point is not everyone is seeking biglaw right out of law school (if at any point in their career) and people go to law school for other reasons than to make tons of money. Some are more interested in the judiciary or academia or public interest work.
 
It's finally coming around to face reality

Law school applications are headed for a 30-year low, reflecting increased concern over soaring tuition, crushing student debt and diminishing prospects of lucrative employment upon graduation.

As of this month, there were 30,000 applicants to law schools for the fall, a 20 percent decrease from the same time last year and a 38 percent decline from 2010, according to the Law School Admission Council. Of some 200 law schools nationwide, only 4 have seen increases in applications this year. In 2004 there were 100,000 applicants to law schools; this year there are likely to be 54,000.

Such startling numbers have plunged law school administrations into soul-searching debate about the future of legal education and the profession over all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/e...s-fall-as-costs-rise-and-jobs-are-cut.html?hp
 
Such startling numbers have plunged law school administrations into soul-searching debate about the future of legal education and the profession over all.

Ah, I see. It's not the poor (if not non-existent) job prospects, which have persisted for years upon years -- coupled with huge students debts -- that have suddenly caused this angst; it's declining enrollments that affect the $200,000 and $400,000 salaries of law profs and law school deans that have. What altruism and empathy.
 
bigbadwolf how dare you suggest those in the ivory tower live in an altered state of reality ;)

and mba programs (and mfe programs, too) will see this happen at some point. you'll finally see the wheat and the chaff, not that many of us don't see it already, of course (pardon the double negative).
 
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