Modeling civilisation collapse

[bigbadwolf]

This paper looks interesting. It seems to be based on a generalisation of the Volterra predator-prey model (but I haven't yet grokked it in fullness).

http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf

 

[Daniel Duffy]

We could plug the equations into Boost ODEint and predict the end of the world

http://www.boost.org/doc/libs/1_55_0/libs/numeric/odeint/doc/html/index.html

Let me know if there is interest.

 

[bigbadwolf]

We could plug the equations into Boost ODEint and predict the end of the world

http://www.boost.org/doc/libs/1_55_0/libs/numeric/odeint/doc/html/index.html

Let me know if there is interest.

My sentiments exactly. Or it could be done in Matlab. A number of alternative scenarios are the parameters are varied. This beats Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies.

 

[Daniel Duffy]

My sentiments exactly. Or it could be done in Matlab. A number of alternative scenarios are the parameters are varied. This beats Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies.

So, any QN folk on for a nice communal project?

 

[JesseLevermore]

Looks like a cheap reissue of the WORLD3

 

[GoIllini]

Well, now I have some ammunition against the doomers. The best indicator of population collapse is decreasing wealth in the face of rising population. That doesn't seem to be happening in our case.

 

[Daniel Duffy]

Well, now I have some ammunition against the doomers. The best indicator of population collapse is decreasing wealth in the face of rising population. That doesn't seem to be happening in our case.

Are rabbits renewable or non-renumerable resources?

 

[bigbadwolf]

Well, now I have some ammunition against the doomers. The best indicator of population collapse is decreasing wealth in the face of rising population. That doesn't seem to be happening in our case.

I'm quoting from the top of my head but I think around 4bn humans live on or below $2 a day. The "wealth increase" is mostly fictitious capital in the West (something today's lefties can't seem to understand). The physical basis of our civilisation is increasingly parlous. There seem to be two schools of thought -- 1) cascading collapse (Orlov), and 2)the inexorable and protracted circle of decline (Greer). Both these schools acknowledge material constraints (blithely ignored in mainstream economics).

 

[bigbadwolf]

Are rabbits renewable or non-renumerable resources?

In the usual predator-prey models, they're treated as renewable. Something that isn't the case for, say, fossil fuel.

 

[okmijn]

Or just read Marx or in particular Hilferding Finance Capital ...