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[PHOTO] China Stealth Fighter

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BEIJING — Photos leaked online that appear to show a prototype of China's first stealth fighter jet were discussed in state media Wednesday – a move that supports claims the country's military aviation program is advancing faster than expected.

Both the English and Chinese language editions of the Global Times ran front-page articles on the photos of what appears to be a future J-20 fighter, along with extensive reports on the buzz the pictures have generated overseas.

Photos of the plane appeared on unofficial military news websites and hobbyist blogs last week and were still viewable Wednesday.

China Stealth Fighter? Photos Released Online Raise Speculations
Link to Photo bbs.rednet.cn/thread-24610276-1-1.html

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I'm not at all convinced that a stealth fighter is all the relevant to whatever war China expects to fight next. I see the future as UAVs, missiles, etc. I believe stealth that stealth on manned aricraft will be as relevant in 10 years as more efficient propellers.

Also, as someone who was a serious plane geek at one point, I strongly suspect that is not a production stealth aircraft. The shape is vaguely plausible for radar stealth, but the engine outlets don't look right at all. My guess is that this plane would be pathetically vulnerable to infra red tracking.
I've not kept up with this stuff, but I do know that it's very hard to hide the thermal signature of a fighter, whereas avoiding radar returns is advanced enough that some are beginning to suspect 'cloaks of invisibility' might actually be achievable for certain applications.

Bombers and UAVs suffer less from the infra red issue, mostly because they don't have to fly high or fast anything like as much.
 
That thing looks like an F-22 from the front. Eep. Makes you wonder if we need production of more Raptors ordered. But that is a nice looking birdy. Odds are, though, the only place we'll ever see it really fly is in an ace combat game, right there with the Su-37 and Su-47, both of which are also one-ofs.
 
I'm not sure that Raptor class aircraft are the way forward...

Their cost means that their number will always be relatively low, and their running cost is colossal. Their complexity means that if a war between large countries erupted (their primary use), it would be extremely difficult to train enough support people quickly enough to be useful before the war was lost or won.

Using 200 million dollar planes, whose bomb loads cost > 50K, and > 10K per hour in fuel is not optimal if one is bombing 17 year olds with AK47s.
Under combat conditions, even with no attempt by the enemy to shoot back, a modern jet has about a 1/750 chance of crashing due to pilot error, equipment faiure etc.

If I were a major manufacturing country, like China, I'd go the other way.
Don't build mainframes, build iPads.

For the cost of one fully armed Raptor, one could build at least 250 relatively smart UAV / Cruise missiles.
So imagine a Chinese attack on a base defended by Raptors...
10 Raptors, 2500 Chinese Boxers

Even with excellent pilots, supported by AWACS, there is just no way the Raptors would succeed.

Also, American political / TV culture us very risk averse.

In recent fights, from Vietnam to Afghanistan, US forces have often killed 100 enemies (or at least people standing near them) per US death.
But Vietnam was lost, and many Americans do not see the price in current wars as worth fighting even though more Americans died in individual battles that few now have heard of than both current wars put together.

That means a battle where US forces fight an enemy, killing 5,000 and forcing them to retreat in a disorderly fashion, but where 1,000 US troops died, might actually have the same effect as a defeat.

War on a large scale is economics.
If you shoot down hundreds of $1 million dollar unmanned aircraft, you have done more harm than killing 1,000 ground troops. But Americans value the lives of their servicemen rather more than most other countries, so fighting with drones should be the default pattern.

But America cannot make rational defence choices.
Options are wholly dictated by defence contractors, who would rather make billion dollar planes.
A good and sad example of this is body armour for ground troops.

Some wars are a 'surprise' in terms of the equipment you need.
But it's extremely unlikely that US troops would be in a war where no one shot at them.
But body armour is pathetically cheap, hence the makers can't afford the "campaign contributions" necessary to get them bought.

American has the tech to make the best UAVs though Israel is pretty good as well,
but it won't make them in any real numbers, and that's should worry some people.
 
I'm sure BAe system will sell them a few of those Taranis jobs - BAe seem to sell anything to anyone with a few million spare.

Intercontinental range, unmanned and stealth tech sounds like exactly the type of combat aircraft of the future.


American has the tech to make the best UAVs though Israel is pretty good as well,
but it won't make them in any real numbers, and that's should worry some people.
 
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