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Preparing for the Next 'Black Swan'

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Everyone here probably knows who Taleb is (regardless of whether you are a fan or not). You probably own a copy of his books as well (Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan)

This article explains the rise in hedge funds specializing in tail-risk events or "black swan" events as it's usually known.

LINK preparing-for-the-next-black-swan: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance

After a decade-long bear market and two years of turmoil that saw the stock market plunge by 57%, investors are betting on still more financial pain in the months ahead.

Bond yields are near record lows. Gold continues to soar. And stocks are whipsawing as traders try to predict the direction of an economy that remains, in the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, "unusually uncertain."

But not every investor is trembling with anxiety over the next financial blowup. Some are embracing the market's volatility—and constructing portfolios to profit from it.

A growing number of money managers and financial firms are rolling out investment products designed to exploit big declines known as "black swan" events. Most of the products are geared toward institutional investors such as pension funds, endowments and high-net-worth families—but black-swan strategies are trickling down to Main Street as well.
 
"... big declines known as "black swan" events"

Just a note, the article implies that black swan events are negative. Black swans can be positive too, but of course it is hard to think of those these days!
 
Oh, you can't really do that.
As long as they teach VaR in finance courses, the world is exposed to 'Black Swan' events.


"Pimco doesn't spend a lot of time forecasting what the black swans might be..."
Well, as per Taleb, you cannot forecast a Black Swan event, so spending 'any' time on it would be quite a waste.
 
Here's a better one:

Nobel Prize for Black-Scholes Model: $1.4mn
RiskMetrics Installation : $100k
Phillipe Jorion's Value-at-Risk: $18.48

The Black Swan - Priceless
 
Interesting. I always thought that the inherent nature of black swan events made them near impossible to exploit. Or is the term overused these days?
 
I think by definition a Black Swan event is a tail event. Their frequency of occurrence and the capitalization on them is a different story though.
 
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