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Triple Crown - Kentucky Derby

alain

Older and Wiser
Hello Boys and Girls,

It's that time of the year again. Tomorrow, we will have the first leg of the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby. There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since 1978 so hopefully something happens this year.

The clear favorite is Big Brown but no horse has ever won coming out of a gate greater than 16 for God knows how many years. He drew gate 20 so it will be history in the making.

Does anybody like horses?
 

joe_bradley

Active Member
Aha, I am a Louisville native! I HAVE to like horses.

You're right about the gate draw. It is absolutely ridiculous that the Derby has such a friggin' big field (20+ horses!). It throws too much luck into the draw. And of course, it makes Triple Crown winners that much rarer. Problem is, horse racing is not nearly as popular as it was years ago, it seems the only way people ever care about it anymore is if a triple crown winner is a realistic possibility.
 

Bridgett

Well-Known Member
Hello Boys and Girls,

It's that time of the year again. Tomorrow, we will have the first leg of the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby. There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since 1978 so hopefully something happens this year.

The clear favorite is Big Brown but no horse has ever won coming out of a gate greater than 16 for God knows how many years. He drew gate 20 so it will be history in the making.

Does anybody like horses?

Alain!!! You appear to like/love all sports/games -- baseball, football, horse race, what else? Give us a full list so that some of us can check them out!! (I thought you would have no time for fun in the midst of work, family life, and stochastic calculus.... like some say... you are the Man!!!):prayer:
 

alain

Older and Wiser
Well, Big Brown won and by a good margin (thin 4+ lengths). Let's see what happens in two weeks with the Preakness. I'll be back. If he has a good showing in the Preakness, I will be really excited for the Belmont Stakes. Big Brown seems like a great horse and I would love to see a Triple Crown winner.

Also, the way he won makes me wonder if he can pull a similar performance to Secretariat (which I doubt). If nobody knows Secretariat. He was the Michael Jordan of horse racing... by far!!! Just try to see the video of Belmont Stakes in 1973... he DESTROYED the field!!!

There was some bad news since the second place horse, a philly, broker her ankles and she was put down. That's the sad part of the sport.
 

alain

Older and Wiser
Joe, I didn't know anything about horse racing until my first job in US. The owner of that company owns horses and he kept us informed of the horse races (and his handicap) through the year.

I started to look into it and it is somewhat like another sport where statistics play a good role and, of course, there is money to be made applying quant methods :D
 

joe_bradley

Active Member
Statistics, yes. There's loads of statistics in horse racing, and naturally lots of models and experts telling you where to bet. But quant stuff? Seems you'd actually need a secondary market. Betting odds do change as the race approaches gate time, so that isn't out of the question. But I can't imagine the market in secondhand betting tickets would be too liquid ;-)

As for horse ownership, horses are expensive, and I've heard of people buying "shares" of ownership. One could imagine "structuring" ownership... but then again, somebody needs to do the hard work of stabling and training the horse. You wouldn't want the owners to be too abstracted from that work. A horse is a living breathing entity, whereas mortgages just take care of themselves, right? :D
 
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