Why is stock market still so bullish?

[Volatility Stalker]

I am an options trader in Taiwan and I set up delta neutral-long gamma-short vega position before Chinese New Year Break.

The long gamma part is primarily from long put.

Global stock market (if not all, but most) has already recovered from the loss of the 2008 meltdown and recently, I really hate the way that stock market rebound so quickly even during Egyptian crisis.


Anyone has idea of when will the next market crash happen and when will we see VOLATILITY surge again?

 

[HyperVolatility]

The volatility should increase around March-April but this not sure and the surge can take quite a lot before "showing off".....the current volatility level is probably one the lowest touched so far and even the VIX and the VXN Index are trading at ridiculous levels.
Implied vol indeed appears extremely cheap and even the volatility of volatility is now diminishing.
I agree with you ....this is not going to last forever but realised vol can take time to mean revert and since you are an option trader (as i am) you know it perfectly well.

 

[Joy Pathak]

I am an options trader in Taiwan and I set up delta neutral-long gamma-short vega position before Chinese New Year Break.

The long gamma part is primarily from long put.

Global stock market (if not all, but most) has already recovered from the loss of the 2008 meltdown and recently, I really hate the way that stock market rebound so quickly even during Egyptian crisis.


Anyone has idea of when will the next market crash happen and when will we see VOLATILITY surge again?

During the next full moon.

 

[koupparis]

Anyone has idea of when will the next market crash happen and when will we see VOLATILITY surge again?

May 21, 2011

 

[HyperVolatility]

"May 21, 2011"

is that the new full moon day? \\:D/

 

[Joy Pathak]

May 21, 2011

Hahaa. Did you see that at Grand Central? I saw some people running around GC with signs saying that the world is coming to an end on May 21, 2011.