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BREXIT just happened, thoughts on consequences?

London will be reduced as a financial hub. In the wake of the Brexit vote, Morgan Stanley has decided to shift 2,000 jobs to Dublin and Frankfurt and I think Goldman Sachs has decided to axe 4,000 in the City (but I don't have confirmation of this).
 
London will be reduced as a financial hub. In the wake of the Brexit vote, Morgan Stanley has decided to shift 2,000 jobs to Dublin and Frankfurt and I think Goldman Sachs has decided to axe 4,000 in the City (but I don't have confirmation of this).
MS has denied this it seems, Did you hear it on the BBC?
 
What I wrote yesterday as comment to my portfolio
(Somewhat better than DUCKS | wikifolio.com)
23.06.2016 23:07
Allgemeiner Kommentar
75.7% in cash, 2.2% in ETC (Kupfer long, Öl Short) und nur 22% in Stocks. Klar setzt der Markt auf **Bremain** und so wird wahrscheinlich sein. Dann kann DAX noch 3%-4% hochklettern (dabei werden wir immernoch somewhat better than DUCKS bleiben). Aber wenn doch Brexit, gehen die Märkte in freien Fall etwa wie im 2011 beim USA Downgrade. Weil wir nicht zocken, sondern systematisch handeln, bleiben wir überwiegend in Cash und nach dem BRErgebnis schauen wir!

My view on Brexit on 23.06.2016 23:07 23:07 75.7% in cash, 2.2% in ETC (Copper long, Oil Short) and only 22% in stocks. Surely the market believes in **Bremain** and most likely it will be the case. Then DAX can grow about 3% - 4% (and my portfolio still will be better than DAX). But if Brexit, the market will fall like it die in 2011 by USA Rating downgrade! Since we do not gamble but rather trade systematically, we stay mainly in cash and will wait for BREsults!

Yes, I love black swans!
If you don't you just cannot cook them properly! ;)
 
MS has denied this it seems, Did you hear it on the BBC?

Dunno where I read it. HSBC has also said something along these lines. I suspect everyone will deny it now while surreptitiously making covert plans to shift. London was the financial centre for the EU -- but now that Britain is not EU, there's no compelling reason for banks to stay in oh-so-very-expensive London with its substandard housing and transport system. But I'm jumping the gun: I don't think anyone quite knows how things are going to pan out: we're on terra incognita.

I suspect that a few weeks down the road, we'll be hearing variants of the following exchange in the dives of English cities:

"For mine own part, when I said, leave the EU, I said twas pity."
"And so did I."
"And so did I; and, to say the truth, so did very many of us: that we did, we did for the best; and
though we willingly consented to leaving the EU, yet it was against our will."

(Adapted from Scene 6 of Shakespeare's Coriolanus: SCENE VI. Rome. A public place.)
 
UK has a political crisis. anti-fragile response from UK public - the more shit the politicians fed to them, the more they spat out. there is total disparity between the views of politicians and the public. the rise of Trump in the states, the French far right lady, Corbyn, suggests the public do not like the establishment. trend will be towards the far right.

mainstream media up to the referendum was a total disgrace. promoted the view that anything but staying in was racist, stupid, un-British, etc. you can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time. nice try Mr Cameron - now piss off. Labour party is a total joke - they are shooting themselves in the foot.

favourite part was the Nobel award winning economists letter explaining why its favourable for UK to remain in EU. I printed it out just to put it in the garbage can.
 
But keep in mind that the referendum is "non-binding" -- it's up to Parliament to decide whether to leave and what timetable to adopt. Paul Craig Roberts says something interesting:

The British people should not be so naive as to think that their vote settles the matter. The fight has only begun. Expect:

— The British government to come back to the people and say, look, the EU has given us a better deal. We can now afford to stay in.

— The Fed, ECB, BOJ, and NY hedge funds to pound the pound and to short British stocks in order to convince the British voters that their vote is sinking the economy.

— More emphasis on the vote’s weakening of Europe, leaving all to the mercy of “Russian aggression.”

— Hard to resist bribes (and threats) to prominent members of the leave majority and pressure on such leave leaders as Boris Johnson to be reasonable, conciliatory and to maintain good relations with Washington and Europe, and to reach a compromise on remaining in the EU.

— Expect the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) to attribute the loss of British jobs and investment opportunities to the leave vote.

Also, even if Britain "leaves", it may still negotiate some deal like Norway, meaning it is effectively in the EU but without any negotiating power.
 
But keep in mind that the referendum is "non-binding" -- it's up to Parliament to decide whether to leave and what timetable to adopt. Paul Craig Roberts says something interesting:



Also, even if Britain "leaves", it may still negotiate some deal like Norway, meaning it is effectively in the EU but without any negotiating power.
The keyword is "effectively". It will bring us all back to the 70's. Been there, done that.
Disaster. Cloud cuckoo-land. What do I know?
 
Dublin will be to London what Greenwich is to NYC. With UK out of EU, Dublin is going to prosper even more :D It is a beautiful city and much more cheaper.

It is uncertain how many jobs will be moved but I am sure some banks will definitely move a lot of jobs :D Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank...

EU bureaucracy is a total mess but so is increasing populism and protectionism in UK. London should be a separate entity and has different laws. Otherwise it will be completely devastated by increasing populism.
 
Dublin will be to London what Greenwich is to NYC. With UK out of EU, Dublin is going to prosper even more :D It is a beautiful city and much more cheaper.

It is uncertain how many jobs will be moved but I am sure some banks will definitely move a lot of jobs :D Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank...

EU bureaucracy is a total mess but so is increasing populism and protectionism in UK. London should be a separate entity and has different laws. Otherwise it will be completely devastated by increasing populism.
Dublin is a big town and hectic. And expensive.
 
The referendum is expected to have its sharpest impact on companies that use the UK as a staging platform for trade and financial transactions with the rest of Europe. Morgan Stanley said it could move one sixth of its British workforce to other EU countries, and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said similar moves could follow at his firm.

A source at a major US financial firm told Reuters, “The juniors are freaking out. I will tell them to focus on their job and wait for the volatility to pass, but the reality is much, much starker. We'll have a crash and big layoffs.”

Ford said it would cut jobs in Britain as a result of the vote, declaring that it would “take whatever action is needed” to shore up profitability. Its Asian competitors Toyota and Nissan, whose car production in the UK is designed almost entirely for export, particularly to the European Union, hinted at similar steps. Only ten percent of Toyota’s car production in the UK targets the domestic market.

UK “leave” vote batters financial markets - World Socialist Web Site
 
Financial Times commentary 6/27:

The danger to the UK’s financial services sector was highlighted by François Villeroy de Galhau, France’s central bank governor, who warned that banks would lose “passporting” rights to operate in the EU if Britain leaves the single market.

The UK could try to adopt the path followed by Norway, which is a member of the European Economic Area but not the EU. But that has drawbacks: it requires Britain to implement all of the EU’s rules without having a say in writing them.

And Jonathan Hill, the Briton who resigned at the weekend as EU’s commissioner for financial services, told the Financial Times that he was not sure an arrangement would work. “Most approaches that offer access come with free movement of people and I can’t see that flying given the weight of immigration as an issue in the referendum debate,” he said.
 
Why Brexit is bad for UK banks

By 2020, Brexit could cost between 70,000 and 100,000 financial services jobs in the UK, says PwC, including in the insurance and managed funds industries. HSBC said on Friday it was likely to cut as many as 1000 staff from London, while bank analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said US banks could move just over 7200 from London.
 
you cannot keep eating and expect to lose weight. you must not eat and starve, every now and then. sometimes the only way you can starve is for someone to take all your food and literally make you starve. that is the position UK will be in. the politicians kept eating. the people took the food away and starved the pigs, then the pigs showed themselves for what they are.

there are too many back office staff in UK banks and far too many consultants - 70% chance brexit fixes this.

immigration in the UK has & is too high - 40% chance brexit fixes this.

EU rules override UK national rules (sovereignty) - 80% chance brexit fixes this.

the EU is trying to cover its naked position. it is holding crap cards but is trying to bluff. combine the contagion risk (austria, france, italy, netherlands, ...) with negative EUR rates and laughable economies (italy, spain and of course the mother of all jokes Greece) you have a union that is there for the taking.

a good heuristic: usually what the public thinks, you should think the opposite.
another good heuristic: usually what the mainstream media tells you to believe, you should believe the opposite.

it is clear to see why people love the EUR - they are blind idiots. you have long term interest rates in multiple EU countries with negative yields - how do people rationalise this? it is utter stupidity. get out, let it crash and burn - close the door on the way out.
 
Anyway, it's exceedingly unlikely there's actually going to be a "Brexit." Just posing and bluffing from Britain. It doesn't have the balls to exit. Watch the prevaricating and backtracking now.
 
Anyway, it's exceedingly unlikely there's actually going to be a "Brexit." Just posing and bluffing from Britain. It doesn't have the balls to exit. Watch the prevaricating and backtracking now.
The leave group do not seem to have a strategy.
 
EU rules override UK national rules (sovereignty) - 80% chance brexit fixes this.

National rules tend to be discriminatory and bordering on the xenophobic. The EU rules are better in my long experience living on an island and the mainland.

Too much heat and very little light. The Leave campaign played on xenophobic fears and skewed nationalism. Same old story.

Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
Samuel Johnson

No relation to Boris.
 
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The leave group do not seem to have a strategy.

It was all bollocks and bravado. The litmus test is when Britain invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and formally initiates withdrawal proceedings. What Germany and France are saying is, "Start the formal proceedings or shut up. And if you leave, good riddance."
 
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