Assets whose returns are negatively correlated with US economic stability, what else
Care to elaborate?
Eternal optimist that I am:
Consider a doomsday scenario (not so unlike those toted around in '07/'09 when the viability of the FDIC was called into question alongside everything else that was going on). A US default and subsequent downgrading, in my unprofessional opinion, could send ripple effects not only through the US economy but also through the confidence of ALL markets both domestically as well as globally - to any economy closely tied to that of the US (I'll give you a hint, it's just about everyone).
I would be curious to see how you have modeled such scenarios to build a structurally sound portfolio that would sustain negative correlation. Dynamically hedging a vector autocorrelation strategy would come to mind as a potential option (tho I never really did wrap my head around that) further, the data selection used would greatly impact things and the model tends to blow up (size-wise). PCA could help you out, but in turn introduces more error and harder to interpret results. Again, I don't know how one would set about doing this (and it eerily reminds me of a project I was working on). Perhaps there's a simpler way of doing this? If anyone would care to enlighten me
If you are talking about commodities, currencies and ETFs (you already know my thoughts on the leveraged ones as mid/long term holds), I would implore you again to look at data from '07/'09. When the sky is falling, a herd mentality tends to occur - everyone runs to seek shelter in the same assets artificially inflates prices to the point where the hangover the next morning is worse than the problems that caused you to drink in the first place; timing is everything and it paid to be a contrarian.
Treasuries were a safe haven the last go around. I think running to seek shelter here would be too easy. Well, that coupled with the whole credibility thing - I wonder if they will whipsaw the way gold did?
In truth, I don't know what the answer would be. I would probably take a step back from the broad market and look for inefficiencies - arb opportunities - stemming from the chaos. Perhaps less popular ADR vs foreign equities or currencies as a starting point (assuming i had an efficient enough model, and means, to engage in trading such a thing).
In '08, on a purely fundamental global macro strategy, RGR and SWHC were my top holds and I flirted with other names that would withhold a nuclear holocaust, like CPB. As for the vegetable garden, MON could garner a further look
As for wedding rings, there are cheaper avenues to find gold to melt down...
/end rant