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4. You have 5 quarters on the table in front of you: four fair (regular two-sided coins) and one double-sided (both sides are heads). You pick one of them up at random, flip it five times, and get heads each time. Given this information, what is the probability that you picked up the double-sided quarter?
There are 5 coins--4 regular and 1 unfair. Assuming an equal probability of picking up a random coin, the probability of picking up a fair quarter is .8, and the double-sided .2
Assuming you pick up the double sided, you will flip 5 heads guaranteed. Assuming you pick up a regular one, you have a (.5)^5=1/32 probability of flipping 5 heads in a row. 1/32 (P(5 heads))*8/10 (P(fair coin))=1/40.
So you set up a Bayes table...
.........1-4 heads...................................5 heads
Fair... 248/320=(31/32*8/10).............1/40 =(1/32*8/10)
Unfair 0 =(0*2/10)............................ .2/10 =(1*2/10)
And since we know we rolled 5 heads, we isolate the 5 heads column...
Then it's just a straightforward calculation...
.2/(.2+.025)= .89
I just hope that I don't look like a fool for using basic bayes table stuff without all of the crazy notation...this is the reason I got a C+ in theory of probability...I say solve the problem, and don't go nutso on the notation...which is why I have so much trouble following it all the time >_<
Edit: This may also be why I have so much trouble programming...as my algorithms professor said, being able to do a problem on hand is trivial.