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DOW is under 10,000 today
- Thread starter Yan He
- Start date
- Joined
- 5/2/06
- Messages
- 11,768
- Points
- 273
It closed above 10K but it's clear we are in for a long and painful future. Brace thyself.
It isn't fascinating any more reading the news everyday.
It isn't fascinating any more reading the news everyday.
- Joined
- 6/6/08
- Messages
- 1,194
- Points
- 58
Painful? Yes. Long? I disagree. We only have to look back to the past to see how "long" these crises are with the speed of information. It lasts only until those with little information go bandwagoning to the next bubble.
- Joined
- 1/2/07
- Messages
- 128
- Points
- 28
Ilya,
Which past are you looking at as a frame of reference? I would agree with you that the recession proceeding the bursting tech bubble was not very long, however I think that the problems today are MUCH more significant than a simple unwinding of speculative investments.
Remember that many of the conditions present in today's market have not been seen since the Great Depression. With the significant bailouts of European institutions this weekend it is apparent that there is still a significant amount of deleveraging to be done.
I think that the major effect of this deleveraging will not simply be a writedown of assets held on these institutions' books, but a global shift in the philosophy of the securities industry and appetite for risk. In my opinion, these conditions would point to a much more prolonged slowdown than you are forecasting.
Which past are you looking at as a frame of reference? I would agree with you that the recession proceeding the bursting tech bubble was not very long, however I think that the problems today are MUCH more significant than a simple unwinding of speculative investments.
Remember that many of the conditions present in today's market have not been seen since the Great Depression. With the significant bailouts of European institutions this weekend it is apparent that there is still a significant amount of deleveraging to be done.
I think that the major effect of this deleveraging will not simply be a writedown of assets held on these institutions' books, but a global shift in the philosophy of the securities industry and appetite for risk. In my opinion, these conditions would point to a much more prolonged slowdown than you are forecasting.
- Joined
- 7/17/08
- Messages
- 307
- Points
- 38
I think I agree with Christian, reading about the massive privatisations that are occurring in Europe, watching the USA slowly implode, I can't see any quick recovery from this.
Astounding to think that only a bit over a year ago, the share market was going only up, people were talking about an Aussie composite average of 7000+ and a commodities boom set to last 20 years....
Fast forward, and our market is at < 4500, the mining boom is in doubt as less chinese companies buy up minerals to make televisions for americans, and I watch "conservative" Europe follow America down the drain.
I think banks themselves will probably adjust their operations considerably, but I don't have much faith in the role of governments to achieve anything significant. Just my opinion...
Astounding to think that only a bit over a year ago, the share market was going only up, people were talking about an Aussie composite average of 7000+ and a commodities boom set to last 20 years....
Fast forward, and our market is at < 4500, the mining boom is in doubt as less chinese companies buy up minerals to make televisions for americans, and I watch "conservative" Europe follow America down the drain.
I think banks themselves will probably adjust their operations considerably, but I don't have much faith in the role of governments to achieve anything significant. Just my opinion...
